Bitcoin's latest rally faces rising selling pressure, CryptoQuant warns

CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s recent price jump may be a bull trap as big holders send more coins to exchanges, a move that often shows selling pressure is rising.

According to a report by CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, whale activity has risen, and inflows into exchanges have increased, so the BTC rally risks profit-taking.

Bitcoin whales move coins to exchanges as selling rises

According to data from CryptoQuant, many whales are moving money to exchanges to capitalize on the BTC rally and lock in profits. In fact, hourly Bitcoin inflows recently reached about 11,000 BTC, the highest hourly reading seen since late December 2025. 

However, sustaining the rally will become more difficult as more investors continue to move money into exchanges just as the price pushes higher, building selling pressure.

The numbers suggest that whales are behind much of the recent activity because the average Bitcoin deposit sent to exchanges rose to 2.25 BTC, an average that a few small traders sending tiny amounts of Bitcoin can’t achieve. 

The largest transfers came through Binance, where individuals deposited more than 1,000 BTC, which analysts say can affect market direction when many of them move simultaneously.

CryptoQuant also reported that large deposits accounted for 40% of total inflows to exchanges, up from 10% a few days ago. Such an increase has occurred before, and it serves as a warning that BTC prices are about to drop because sellers are stronger than buyers. 

Bitcoin dropped from $100,000 to $60,000 in January 2026 after average BTC deposits into exchanges rose to almost 2 BTC, highlighting the kind of behavior that precedes price declines. March 2026 recorded a similar decline after hourly inflows on exchanges increased to 9,000 BTC, with large deposits accounting for 63% of them.

Today’s inflows of 11,000 BTC are much higher than the 9,000 BTC level in March, and while they do not guarantee a price drop, they still signal a possible pullback ahead and add to the high selling pressure.

Bitcoin hits key resistance as profit-taking grows

Bitcoin is now approaching the traders’ onchain realized price near $76,800, a resistance level during bear markets. When BTC reaches that zone, growth can slow sharply because it’s a natural selling point for many traders who want to recover their money rather than risk another possible drop.

January 2026 saw the bear market rally cap at that point, and analysts say the same pattern could repeat if more sellers build pressure near this level.

According to CryptoQuant, the next major support level sits near $67,600 if BTC fails to break above the $76,800 resistance, which is highly likely given the increased selling pressure from anxious traders. 

Meanwhile, onchain data shows that profit-taking is rising quickly, with investors already locking in about $1.14 billion in gains. CryptoQuant says this amount isn’t the peak of what profit-taking can bring in, because daily realized profits are still averaging around $500 million, even though they usually move above $1 billion per day in bear markets.

The South Korea-based institutional-grade analytics platform says the increased selling pressure could stop the breakout and trigger a reversal if more holders decide to sell their tokens once Bitcoin pushes through the $76,800 resistance zone.

CryptoQuant says there’s a risk that new buyers will end up stuck with losses if Bitcoin briefly breaks the resistance zone, only to quickly fall back. The risk is even greater when you consider that short traders who bet against BTC were forced out of their positions as the token rose above $70,000.

At the same time, many derivatives traders remain positive about Bitcoin’s rise, and new long positions have even been opened above $73,000. Traders are betting on higher prices, as Bitcoin’s funding rates also flipped from strongly negative to positive.

Furthermore, futures traders still expect the price to rise further despite the warning signs, as the taker buy/sell volume ratio remains above 1. 

However, this creates a conflict because while futures traders are going all in on Bitcoin, whales are using the same rally to exit positions. 

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