Citi cuts Nvidia price target to $210 on rising AI chip competition

Citi has cut Nvidia’s price target from $220 to $210, as analyst Atif Malik warned that new AI chip rivals are crowding the space. The update came Monday, according to Citi’s latest client note, after Broadcom reported better-than-expected earnings and announced a $10 billion custom chip deal with a fourth unidentified customer.

The products, known as XPUs, are designed for artificial intelligence systems and pose a direct challenge to Nvidia’s GPUs. Atif kept his buy rating on the stock, even with the cut. Nvidia shares are already up 24.4% in 2025, and Atif still sees another 19.7% upside from last Friday’s close.

But he now expects 2026 GPU sales to come in 4% lower than he previously thought, citing pressure from both Broadcom and Google, which is expanding the use of its own TPUs. These custom chips are now being used by Google’s partners, including Meta, OpenAI, and Oracle.

Broadcom’s AI chip order and Google’s role hit 2026 GPU outlook

“We previously expected the AI XPU chip sales to outpace GPU sales in 2026,” Atif wrote, adding that Broadcom’s comments on faster XPU adoption seem linked to Google helping its rivals get more compute power without depending on Nvidia. “We estimate ~$12B GPU sales impact to Nvidia’s 2026 sales from the above deals,” he said.

The stock has already taken a hit. Nvidia is down 8.6% over the last month after second-quarter data center revenue came in just below expectations. There are also growing concerns about customer concentration. In the July quarter, two buyers accounted for 39% of Nvidia’s total revenue.

All eyes now turn to CEO Jensen Huang, who is scheduled to deliver the GTC keynote on October 28. Investors are hoping for clarity as rivals continue to eat into Nvidia’s market.

Still, Atif said his estimates for 2025 and 2026 remain slightly higher than Wall Street’s average, thanks to rising demand from neocloud companies and sovereign AI projects, which involve national governments building their own AI infrastructure. He did not include potential future GPU shipments to China, though he noted that would be upside if shipments resume.

Separately, Nvidia board member Dawn Hudson sold 90,000 shares last week at an average of $170.90, cashing out $45.5 million, filings show. The sale lowered her holdings by 20%.

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