Euro: French risks cap upside against US Dollar – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole says EUR/USD is modestly undervalued versus short-term fair value around 1.137–1.139, but ongoing French fiscal concerns and protests may limit gains. He sees risks as balanced, with downside from France and upside from further AI-related pressure on Fed expectations, and keeps a one-month EUR/USD target at 1.130.

French protests and AI keep risks balanced

"EUR/USD briefly dropped back below 1.120 overnight before inching higher again this morning. The move in short-term rate differentials has pushed our short-term fair value estimate for EUR/USD higher to around 1.137-1.139. The current undervaluation is therefore around 1.3-1.5%, broadly consistent with French fiscal risk remaining very much present, as reflected in the 10yr OAT-Bund spread hovering around 135-140bp."

"Markets have appeared tentatively more relaxed about the budget situation. Still, continued widespread protests in France over the weekend should weigh on domestic stocks and could spill over into the bond market. We doubt that is enough to drive further sustained widening per se, but it may limit EUR/USD's ability to return to Friday's levels."

"On the macro side, the highlight of the week is Friday's PMI release. Expectations are for a modest softening in the eurozone composite figure, while remaining well inside expansionary territory. Tomorrow, Germany's ZEW index will be in focus."

"The balance of risks for EUR/USD is fairly even at this stage. Downside risk continues to stem from France, although it has abated somewhat as of late, while the upside comes from further AI concerns hitting Fed rate expectations. Our month-ahead target remains 1.130."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)