Australian Dollar holds as Oil rally offers no help

• AUD/USD trades near 0.7030, down 0.36%, with the US Dollar firmer against every major.
• Oil jumps more than 3% on the reported Hormuz vessel ban, but Gold and Silver fall with it.
• Friday’s NFP report could change the US Dollar direction.

AUD/USD is down 0.36% for the day, but still above the 0.7000 region, giving back Wednesday's gains as the US Dollar (USD) firms across the board. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.28% near the 100.00 psychological level.

The unusual part is that this is happening while Oil rallies. Crude is up over 3% at $77.67 after reports that vessels linked to the United States (US), Israel and other countries Tehran considers hostile would be barred from the Strait of Hormuz under the proposed deal. A commodity-linked currency would normally catch a bid from that move. The Aussie trades on global growth, and a threat to a fifth of the world's Oil flows is a growth risk.

Chinese exports are expected to have grown 22.2% in the year to July, down from 27%, with imports slowing to 27.9% from 36% and the trade surplus narrowing to $107 billion from $125.62 billion. Those are still strong numbers, but the direction of travel matters more than the level for a currency that trades as a proxy for Chinese demand.

Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report lands the same day. A firm print would extend the Greenback's recovery and leave the Aussie squeezed from both sides.

Technical Analysis:

In the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7031, holding in a neutral near-term tone as price sits between the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7001 as underlying support and the 20-period SMA at 0.7035 as immediate resistance. A nearby horizontal barrier at 0.7033 further caps the upside for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 hints at consolidative momentum rather than a directional push.

On the topside, initial resistance is clustered in the 0.7033–0.7034 area, ahead of higher hurdles at 0.7044 and 0.7049, where recent supply has emerged. On the downside, first support is seen at the horizontal level near 0.7023, with the 100-period SMA at 0.7001 providing a deeper structural floor that would need to give way to signal a more pronounced bearish phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)