ECB’s Lane: A range of forward-looking signals point to inflationary pressures in coming months
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane said at the European Parliament in Brussels that inflationary pressures in the Eurozone economy could remain above 2% for quite some time despite peace prospects between the United States (US) and Iran.
Remarks
Labour market resilient, household balance sheets solid, and public investment should support activity.
Uncertainty elevated despite peace prospects and inflation could stay to stay above 2% for quite some time.
Increase in energy prices is expected to keep inflation well above target into the first half of 2027.
Market reaction
No major reaction seen in the Euro (EUR), following ECB Lane's remarks. As of writing, EUR/USD trades near its 10-month low at around 1.1410.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
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