Wall Street Says One Election Result Gives Bitcoin Its Best Chance at $100,000

Investors see a Republican-controlled Congress as Bitcoin’s (BTC) best shot at ending 2026 above $100,000, a Bloomberg survey of 301 traders, portfolio managers and other investors shows. Twenty-nine percent expect that outcome under Republican control, against 8% if Democrats win.

For Bitcoin holders, the gap runs on the downside too. Sixteen percent expect a drop below $60,000 under Democrats, against 5% under Republicans.

Why Does Congress Control Matter for Bitcoin Holders?

Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3, to decide which party controls Congress. Lawmakers there write the rules for crypto markets.

Those rules are still missing. On September 15, the Senate voted 49-50 on whether to open debate on the CLARITY Act, a bill setting federal rules for crypto markets. It needed 60 votes.

Markets punished the CLARITY Act failure. Bitcoin fell more than 5% that day, while Coinbase and Circle shares dropped as much as 10%.

Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Bitcoin policy group Satoshi Action Fund, told BeInCrypto that clear rules could draw larger institutions into long-term crypto investments. He expected that effect to build slowly.

Bloomberg’s survey framed its Bitcoin question around that defeat:

• Under Democratic control, 71% of respondents expected Bitcoin to finish the year lower.

• A split Congress drew 47%, and

• A Republican sweep 27%.

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Why Might a Republican Win Fall Short of $100,000?

Even in the bull case, about 70% did not see Bitcoin clearing $100,000. That level sits roughly 20% above Bitcoin’s late-September price near $83,600.

The 60-vote bar is the hurdle. The September bill drew no Democratic votes, and Republican Sen. Josh Hawley also opposed advancing it, citing risks to community banks.

The poll also has limits. Respondents opted in through Bloomberg links from October 2 to 17, and results were not weighted.

What Do Investors Expect for Stocks and Bonds?

Under Republican control, 65% expect S&P 500 gains to speed up or hold their current pace. Under Democrats, 63% expect gains to slow or turn into losses.

Bonds tell the opposite story. More than half expect falling Treasury yields, which lift bond prices, under Democrats. Only 26% expect that under Republicans.

Separately, 62% said stricter artificial intelligence (AI) rules would hurt US stocks. Still, 55% said no election outcome would push them to consider selling.

Any bill still pending when this Congress ends in January must start over. That leaves the CLARITY Act’s next attempt to the lawmakers chosen on Tuesday.

Investor expectations for bonds, stocks and Bitcoin by Congress outcome. Source: Bloomberg