Waited for Bitcoin's October Bottom? Benjamin Cowen Says He Was Wrong

Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, publicly admitted his bearish Bitcoin call failed on Monday, as the cryptocurrency broke decisively above $85,000 and squeezed short sellers.

The reversal marks a turning point for one of the market’s most influential bearish voices this cycle.

A Public Reversal Rooted in Cycle Analysis

Cycle analysis is a forecasting method that projects Bitcoin’s trajectory from patterns observed in the previous four-year market periods. Cowen leaned on that framework for months, arguing that history still pointed toward lower prices before any durable recovery.

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I was wrongNot going to make excusesI deserve to be dunked on

— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) September 21, 2026

On September 8, he assigned a 65% probability that Bitcoin’s cycle low remained ahead, leaving only a 35% chance the bottom was already in. He repeatedly flagged the realized price near $53,000 as a level that earlier bear markets had tested or undercut.

His July memo centered on a fourth-quarter bottom, most likely in October, echoing midterm-year patterns from 2014, 2018, and 2022. Some scenarios contemplated the downside of $44,000.

Even as Bitcoin reclaimed the mid-70,000s, Cowen maintained it was too early to declare the bear market over. He cited historical pullbacks after golden crosses and warned that a lower peak, similar to 2014 and 2015, remained possible.

In a September 20 update, he conceded the rally had lasted longer than expected. Rising yields, energy prices, and a firmer dollar never delivered the pressure he anticipated.

What Does Bitcoin Above $85,000 Mean?

The market answered quickly and loudly. Bitcoin’s push past $85,000 liquidated more than $831 million in short positions within 24 hours. Long liquidations totaled roughly $130 million over the same span, according to CoinGlass data.

That imbalance shows how heavily traders had positioned for a deeper low that never arrived. Those who followed the bearish roadmap paid a steep and immediate cost.

Cowen responded with unusual candor, saying he was wrong, would offer no excuses, and deserved the criticism coming his way. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe called him one of the few consistently honest bears, noting that everyone eventually errs. Michael Saylor kept his reaction to two words: welcome ₿ack..

The episode carries a broader lesson for crypto investors. Cycle models are probabilistic tools rather than guarantees, and markets can rewrite even well-supported historical analogies.

With Bitcoin holding above $85,000, attention now shifts to whether the breakout matures into a durable bull phase. Residual midterm-year risks could still resurface, but price has delivered its verdict against the deeper fourth-quarter low.