Qualcomm Stock Price Forecast: QCOM Nears $160 Support Ahead of Earnings, Could Fall Another 13%

TradingKey - Qualcomm (QCOM) will report its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 financial results after the U.S. market close on November 4, with the earnings call scheduled for 4:45 p.m. Eastern Time. The market currently expects the company's fourth-quarter revenue to be approximately $10.14 billion, down 10% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share to be approximately $2.17, down nearly 28% year-over-year.

Qualcomm remains in a phase of business transformation, with smartphone chips and licensing operations remaining its main revenue sources. However, rising memory prices, slowing end-market demand, and Apple's gradual adoption of in-house modems are weakening the growth foundation of its traditional businesses. Wall Street expects Qualcomm's fourth-quarter handset chip revenue to decline 25% year-over-year to $5.22 billion, with overall QCT chip business revenue expected to drop by about 11%. In contrast, automotive revenue is projected to surge 62% to $1.71 billion, while the Internet of Things (IoT) business is expected to hover around $1.82 billion.

Although the automotive, IoT, and data center businesses provide new directions for growth, their short-term scale is still insufficient to fully offset the decline in the handset business. Qualcomm recently reached a multi-generation custom chip partnership with Amazon, under which the two companies will jointly develop AI inference chips and high-speed optical interconnect solutions. While this collaboration provides an important breakthrough for Qualcomm to enter the AI data center market, the timing of revenue recognition and profit contribution remains unclear. Therefore, in this earnings report, the market will focus on order size, product delivery cadence, and whether the data center business can translate into actual revenue more rapidly.

Source: TradingView

From a technical perspective, Qualcomm's stock price currently stands at around $164.43, with after-hours prices pulling back further. The stock price has broken below both the 20-day moving average of $175.12 and the 60-day moving average of $175.33. The two moving averages almost coincide, meaning that the level near $175 has turned from support into major resistance. The weakening short-term moving average structure indicates that the platform formed during the previous sideways consolidation is breaking down.

The 14-day RSI has dropped to 39.60, below the smoothed signal line of 47.23, indicating that bearish momentum still holds the advantage. However, as the indicator has not yet entered the oversold region below 30, there is still room for the stock price to test lower levels.

If the financial results or guidance fall short of expectations and push the daily chart to effectively break below $160, the next support will be located near $150. If that level fails to hold as well, the stock price may further retest its previous low of $142.91. Based on the current price, a decline to $143 corresponds to a potential downside of approximately 13%.

Conversely, if Qualcomm's results beat expectations and it provides a positive outlook for fiscal 2027 handset market, automotive business, and AI data center revenue, short-term support may form near $160, with the stock price expected to retest $170. Only a heavy-volume recovery above the dual moving average resistance near $175 would significantly improve the medium-term technical structure. The options market currently expects that the earnings release could trigger a stock price fluctuation of about 9.6%, indicating that investors are prepared for sharp after-hours volatility.