Is SpaceX Stock a Buy at a $2.8 Trillion Valuation? The Math Might Blow Your Mind.

Last Friday, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) completed the largest initial public offering (IPO) of all time. SpaceX stock opened its first trading day on the Nasdaq at around $150, implying a $2.1 trillion market cap.

In the days that followed SpaceX's public debut, shares have climbed 44%. As of this writing (June 16), SpaceX is now worth $2.8 trillion, making it the fifth-most valuable company in the world. That post-IPO surge has drawn predictable skepticism. Detractors point to the company's 2025 financial performance -- roughly $19 billion in revenue and a $5 billion net loss -- as proof that the valuation the market is putting on it is detached from fundamentals.

Indeed, traditional valuation metrics support this stance. However, this view relies purely on a rear-view mirror snapshot that ignores some new transformative tailwinds for SpaceX. Prior to the IPO, SpaceX signed two major AI infrastructure agreements -- one with Anthropic and one with Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL).

These deals introduce high-visibility, high-margin revenue streams for the company that could reframe the entire valuation debate around it.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX just supercharged its revenue profile

In May, SpaceX announced that Anthropic had agreed to commit $1.25 billion per month through May 2029 to rent cloud computing capacity from its Colossus and Colossus II training clusters. The total deal value over the next three years is nearly $45 billion. In addition, Alphabet's Google Cloud will pay $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for cloud capacity, or $30 billion in total revenue. Once those data center deals are fully ramped up, the two contracts will generate a combined annual run rate of roughly $26 billion in recurring revenue.

These are not speculative future sales. Rather, Anthropic and Google represent contracted cash flow from two of the most sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers in the world. When layered onto the company's core revenue base featuring rocket launches and Starlink, SpaceX's forward revenue profile shifts dramatically.

By 2027, I think SpaceX's total top-line figures could comfortably exceed $45 billion annually, with the AI infrastructure segment representing the fastest-growing portion. Investors fixating on the company's trailing sales multiples are effectively valuing SpaceX on yesterday's numbers while ignoring locked-in commitments that dwarf the historical performance of the launch and internet connectivity businesses.

AI infrastructure could prove to be quite profitable for SpaceX

The economics of SpaceX's deals with Anthropic and Google are compelling because the upfront capital outlays are already complete. SpaceX, through xAI, has already invested the capital to acquire, install, and power the GPU clusters it's leasing.

Anthropic and Google are primarily utilizing this pre-existing capacity rather than pursuing completely new build-outs. The incremental costs for SpaceX should be limited to electricity, cooling, maintenance, and operations staff. All of these expenses can be passed on to customers through premium pricing.

These dynamics stand in stark contrast to last year's results, where SpaceX's heavy capital expenditures on AI build-out drove a meaningful portion of the company's total losses. These investments are now transitioning from cost centers to major revenue engines.

In the long run, leasing AI infrastructure could fuel a meaningful swing toward consistent operating profitability for SpaceX. Unlike many AI infrastructure companies that are still burning cash on their build-outs, SpaceX can begin harvesting returns from compute assets already on its balance sheet. This strategy could help compress the timeline along which it will reach sustainable positive free cash flow, and ultimately reduce its need for future capital raises.

Image source: Getty Images.

How should SpaceX be valued?

Applying a simple price-to-sales (P/S) multiple to SpaceX's 2025 revenue produces an eye-watering figure of about 147. However, this metric ignores growth momentum in core segments, as well as the multiyear visibility provided by the new cloud computing deals. I think a more appropriate approach is to treat the Anthropic and Alphabet agreements as a form of contracted annuity. If we assume SpaceX's revenue next year will be in the neighborhood of $45 billion, the implied forward P/S ratio is more along the lines of 62.

While that still isn't cheap in absolute terms, SpaceX's $2.8 trillion market cap could be seen less like complete exuberance and more like a level that is beginning to price in the company's evolution from a pure-play space operator into a diversified technology infrastructure leader.

While the company's history of bottom-line losses is real, they largely reflect the cost of building the very infrastructure that's now generating revenue. Critics who stop at SpaceX's 2025 income statement overlook the transformation that's already underway.

All told, SpaceX's history is rooted in capital-intensive bets that eventually compound. The company's new AI infrastructure deals represent the latest example of this pattern -- converting prior hardware investments into durable cash flows from blue chip customers.

The deals with Anthropic and Google provide some concrete evidence that the market is beginning to assign a premium to the speed and scale at which SpaceX's financial profile is improving. Nevertheless, I think that following the momentum in SpaceX stock carries outsize risk for retail investors right now. A more prudent approach would be to monitor the company's progress in the AI infrastructure landscape and employ a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into the stock over the coming years.

Adam Spatacco has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.