Ripple Price Forecast: XRP trades sideways as negative Coinbase Premium Index weighs

• XRP trades sideways around $1.25, reflecting reduced investor interest.
• XRP's Coinbase Premium Index corrects into negative territory at approximately -0.16%, suggesting weaker demand.
• Technically, XRP faces limited recovery potential amid a structurally capped upside.

Ripple (XRP) hovers around $1.25 on Monday, as bulls and bears engage in a tug-of-war to determine trend direction after consolidation lapses. The remittance token corrected sharply alongside other cryptocurrencies last week, after the $6.3 billion Binance security breach. Broadly, the $1.20 area provides psychological support where buyers are likely to reengage. However, investors should temper expectations given the structural hurdles highlighted across short and medium timeframes.

XRP demand wanes as Coinbase Premium Index turns negative

The XRP Coinbase Premium Index has dropped into negative territory at roughly 0.16%, according to CryptoQuant on-chain data. In other words, this metric suggests that XRP’s average trading price on Coinbase has fallen below its equivalent price on Binance, indicating weakening demand for the token.

Historically, persistent negative readings have at times been associated with weaker buying demand on Coinbase. Conversely, a return to positive territory may signal relative improvement in demand.

Still, the index's decline should not be taken in isolation as definitive evidence of sustained downside pressure. The index’s movements should be tracked alongside trading volumes, exchange flows, and XRP's price action.

Fading XRP demand mirrors a notable drop in market sentiment, as reflected in the Fear & Greed Index at 37 in Fear territory on Monday, up only slightly from 34 the day before. Looking back, the index paints a pale picture compared with last week’s neutral outlook at 50 and the previous month’s Greed market sentiment at 67.

Technical analysis: XRP risks deeper losses

In the daily chart, XRP/USDT trades near $1.25, extending its slide beneath all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which keeps the near-term bias bearish. Price holds below the 100-day EMA at $1.33, the 50-day EMA at $1.34, and the 200-day EMA at $1.37, while the SuperTrend line near $1.40 reinforces a thick band of overhead supply.

Momentum is soft, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 36 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator negative below the zero line, hinting that sellers still have the upper hand despite the lack of outright oversold conditions.

Initial resistance lies at the broken downward trendline around $1.30, which would need to be reclaimed before any meaningful recovery can develop. Above that, the 100-day EMA at $1.33 is followed by the 50-day EMA at $1.34, with the 200-day EMA at $1.37 and the SuperTrend barrier at $1.40 forming a broader cap on the pair’s upside.

With no clear nearby support levels in the current dataset on the daily chart, a sustained break back above the $1.30 trendline resistance would be the first sign that bearish pressure is easing; until then, rallies are likely to stay constrained by the stacked moving-average and SuperTrend resistance overhead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)