The Fed and everything analysts expect to shake Bitcoin this week:

Bitcoin begins a new week with bullish momentum ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting, which could significantly shift market sentiment. BTC/USD is trading tightly around the $107,000 mark, and traders are preparing for a volatile stretch buoyed by inflation fears, the Israel-Iran feud, and the Wednesday FOMC meeting.

Here are four developments the market is watching.

Federal Reserve decision’s market influence

All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s June 18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which could more than likely send crypto markets deeper into volatile territory. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, continuing its pause on cuts throughout 2025. However, inflation pressures are complicating the central bank’s position.

“Powell’s language at the FOMC press conference will be keenly watched,” one strategist on X remarked, “especially with President Trump increasing pressure on the Fed to lower rates.”

Although May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 2.4% year-over-year and core inflation increased by 2.8%, both readings came in below expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also surprised economists to the downside, with a 3.0% increase in core prices, lower than April’s number.

“Following the CPI and PPI reports, market-implied odds shifted to show two 0.25% cuts being priced this year,” explained analysts at Market Mosaic.

Bitcoin trading range in favor of more price swings

Per YouTuber Rananjay Singh, Bitcoin has traded within a narrow 10% range throughout June, a pattern seen in past cycles that often preceded significant price swings. The largest coin by market cap closed the previous week above $104,500, a strong position that provided some optimism for bulls. 

$BTC is moving in a small range this month, just 10% between high and low.

But in the last 4 years, every month moved more than this.

This tells us a big move is coming, up or down.

And the next move will likely be real, not a fake one.

Stay ready.👍#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto pic.twitter.com/jpfQq5s98F

— Rananjay Singh (@TodayCryptoRj) June 16, 2025

“In the last 4 years, every month moved more than this. This tells us a big move is coming, up or down. And the next move will likely be real, not a fake one,” Singh told his followers on X.

Several market watchers warned that if BTC fails to maintain current levels, the market could witness a reversal of the current positive momentum.

“Losing $107K and most definitely $105K more than a wick and my bias changes back to a sub $100K correction before anything else,” argued market analyst Mark Cullen.

Cullen mentioned that the coin’s “ask liquidity” is already being tested during Wall Street’s Monday open, and that he sees a strong chance of an “up and down” movement cycle as the day continues.

Oil and commodities heighten inflation worries

Missile exchanges between Israel and Iran have pushed oil prices higher, feeding fears of inflationary spillovers. According to data from Trading Economics, WTI crude oil futures traded near $73 per barrel on Monday, pulling back slightly after climbing more than 5.5% earlier in the session and building on a 7% surge from Friday.

The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (GSG), which tracks a basket of raw materials, is now trading near the $23 resistance level, a threshold it has failed to breach for three years.

“Commodities have the highest beta to rising inflation,” Market Mosaic analysts reckoned, pointing to oil derivatives like gas, which are heavily weighted in indexes.

The energy sector, comprising just 3% of the S&P 500, is trading at a forward P/E ratio of just 14.6x. Some economists see potential for a short-term rally driven by rising prices even in the presence of long-term structural headwinds.

Binance derivatives: Institutional hedging in play

Investment data analytics platform Alphractal revealed on X that Bitcoin perpetual futures on Binance are currently trading $40 to $50 below the spot price. It asserted that in 2021–2022, this kind of discount “signaled a Bear Market.”

“Today the scenario is different: we are at all-time highs and the discount in derivatives persists,” the platform concluded.

Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson supported the sentiment, adding that: “If the BTC perpetual price difference on Binance turns positive again, it’s a sign that the price is about to explode.” He also propounded that institutions may be placing shorts to hedge or arbitrage, predicting it could lead to a market short squeeze.

“Many institutions are already putting pressure through Shorts, which could be good for a possible short squeeze since they’re going against the OG Whales,” the CEO said.

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