VanEck execs split on BTC as analysts project more risk-on tone Q1 2026

VanEck believes that the first quarter of the year will be more risk-on, due to increased clarity around fiscal policy, monetary trends, and the appeal of investment themes such as AI, private credit, gold, India, and cryptocurrency.

On X, the investment firm remarked, “As we move into 2026, markets are operating in an environment with something investors have not had in years: visibility.”

Nonetheless, the company’s analysts are split on Bitcoin’s outlook, wary of its near-term movements amid shifting market cycles and decoupling trends.

VanEck says AI and gold have become more attractive investments

Post the steep late-year pullback and sell-off in 2025, VanEck noted that AI “looks more attractive today.” It added that themes related to AI, including nuclear power, have risen considerably, making the risk-reward landscape that much more compelling to medium-term investors.

It also claimed that markets have been benefiting from the steady progress in U.S. government finances. The New York-based management firm also argued that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s “normal” label for current rates suggests a steady 2026 outlook, with moderate adjustments and fewer shocks improving market clarity.

It also contended that, following a tough 2025, business development companies (BDCs) have benefited from a correction that has created potential. It confirmed yields remain strong, and credit concerns are largely reflected in prices, making them more compelling than last year. 

Additionally, it explained that gold continues to strengthen its position as a key global currency, supported by central banks and declining dollar dominance.

There is technical overextension, but dips remain attractive for buyers. India is now a high-conviction, long-term investment opportunity driven by structural reforms and sustained growth, it added. 

VanEck’s Matthew Sigel is more optimistic on Bitcoin’s outlook

However, in its post, the firm took a more cautious stance on Bitcoin. The four-year cycle of Bitcoin trading was interrupted in 2025, it stated, meaning short-term signals are less reliable. 

It further commented, “This divergence supports a more cautious near-term outlook over the next 3–6 months,” though certain executives like Matthew Sigel and David Schassler maintain a more positive view of the immediate cycle.

Typically, risk-on markets tend to favor high-risk assets such as AI, tech stocks, and crypto. Still, Bitcoin has diverged from equities and gold following the significant October deleveraging event, according to the firm.

However, in an earlier report, the company had previously highlighted that Bitcoin has significant long-term upside and that it could reach $2.9 million by 2050 if it captures 5–10% of global trade settlements and 2.5% of central bank reserves. 

Speaking on VanEck’s most recent post, Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, said, however, that the firm was more focused on medium-term events than on immediate ones.

He argued, “One can’t help but look at price action, which often is its own narrative as confirmation. With BTC rising in a low-leverage environment, it feels like a lot of last year’s fluff was taken out, leaving bulls a tad more realistic, and bears tamed in their apocalyptic prophecies.”

He explained that while conflict with the US administration and the Fed could have weighed on markets, geopolitical uncertainty and an overall bullish mood for risk assets benefited crypto in its catch-up phase.

Meanwhile, HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun stated that, following the late-2025 adjustments, the market’s path into early 2026 is now rather well established. He sees Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies profiting in the year. Will Clemente, a crypto investor, also said that such conditions are precisely what Bitcoin was built for.

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