On Tuesday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) saw an upward trend toward the 105.36 area. The session won’t provide any highlights as cannons are pointing to Wednesday’s session.
The two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which kicked off on Tuesday and will end on Wednesday, is eyed by market observers. Any changes to the interest rate outlook or guidance by Federal Reserve (Fed) members are bound to stir market movements. The outcome of the famous dot plot will also be closely watched.
Indicators on the daily chart remain strong, and both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) jumped to positive terrain. Additionally, the Index recovered above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), which brightened the outlook for the short term.
Fundamental stimulus on Wednesday will dictate the pace of the next sessions, and markets should eye the 106.00 area in case the DXY faces bullish pressure. On the downside, the 104.50 area remains as a strong support.
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.