US Dollar Index treads water above 98.50 due to market caution
- US Dollar Index stays steady as fragile data ahead of Friday’s jobs report tempers sentiment.
- Traders watch US jobless claims later, with focus shifting to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
- US ADP Employment rose by 41,000 in December after a revised November drop, slightly missing expectations of 47,000.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after two days of gains and hovering around 98.70 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The Greenback remains steady as recent data point to a fragile US economic backdrop ahead of Friday’s crucial jobs report, tempering market sentiment.
Traders will keep an eye on the US Initial Jobless Claims data later in the North American session. Attention will be shifted toward Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to show job gains of 55,000 in December, down from 64,000 in November.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Wednesday that the US Services PMI rose to 54.4 in December from 52.6 in November. This figure came in stronger than the expectation of 52.3. JOLTS Job Openings came in at 7.146 million in November. This reading followed the 7.449 million openings recorded in October (revised from 7.67 million) and came in below the market expectation of 7.6 million.
The US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change showed an increase of 41,000 jobs in December, following a revised decline of 29,000 in November. The figure comes in slightly below market expectations of 47,000.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Tuesday that the US central bank needs to cut interest rates aggressively this year to support economic momentum. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned of a risk that the unemployment rate could “pop” higher.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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