China’s exports are surging outside the US, pushing its trade surplus toward $1.2 trillion

Shipments from China are flooding markets outside the United States this year, and many governments are weighing how to respond without opening a new front in trade tensions.

China’s exporters have kept moving goods during the 5 months of high US tariffs, pushing the country toward a $1.2 trillion trade surplus. With sales to the US restricted, factories have leaned on other buyers. Indian purchases reached an all-time high in August, Africa-bound shipments are on track for a yearly record, and sales to Southeast Asia have moved past their pandemic-era peak.

That broad push is raising alarms. Officials across several regions are watching the damage to local producers and the political cost of provoking Beijing, which is the top trading partner for more than half of the world’s economies.

So far, only Mexico has publicly threatened strong measures this year, floating tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese products, including auto parts, steel, and cars.

50 applications have been received by authorities in India in recent weeks to investigate alleged dumping from countries including Vietnam and China.

Indonesia’s trade minister has vowed to monitor an influx of goods after viral videos showed Chinese vendors discussing plans to ship shirts and jeans for as low as 80 cents to major markets.

Several governments are trying to shield their markets without direct penalties

The trade minister in South Korea has advised against punitive tariffs on Chinese car exports and is seeking more investment instead. Chile and Ecuador have moved to impose targeted fees on low-cost imports after Chinese e-commerce platform Temu saw monthly active users in Latin America jump 143% since January.

Brazil has threatened tougher steps, yet this summer it granted BYD Co Ltd, China’s biggest electric-car maker, a tariff-free window to ramp up production inside the country.

Beijing is using a mix of outreach and pressure to limit pushback. Earlier this month, President Xi Jinping urged BRICS nations to speak with a voice against protectionism during a leaders’ call. Commerce Ministry officials warned Mexico to “think twice” before making a decision, signaling there would be consequences. At the same time, Trump is pressing NATO members to levy tariffs of up to 100% on China.

Chinese officials say trade flows are within reasonable bounds and deny plans to dominate global markets. “When there’s demand from abroad, China exports accordingly,” Vice Finance Minister Liao Min said in July. The state-run People’s Daily also rejected Western complaints of “dumping,” arguing that exporters are not selling below cost.

Analysts warn that a broader coalition against China would compound Beijing’s domestic problems, which include a long property slump and an aging population.

Chinese exports triggered a pushback earlier

Rising shipments have not translated into wider profits at home. Earnings at industrial firms fell 1.7% in the first seven months of the year as manufacturers, trying to cut overcapacity under Xi’s “anti-involution” drive, lowered prices to move more goods abroad. Those cuts are feeding into persistent deflation, which is on track to become the longest since China began opening up in the late 1970s.

The export rush also runs counter to Beijing’s goal of shifting the economy toward stronger consumer spending. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged China to make supporting its households a central plank of its blueprint for the next five years. A policy document laying out those plans is expected to draw attention in the coming weeks.

For Xi, the trade gamble may serve a larger purpose. Demonstrating that China can live with less demand from US buyers could bolster his position at a meeting with Trump in South Korea. The two biggest economies are still working on a possible deal, and a 90-day pause on tariffs as high as 145% is currently keeping tensions in check.

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