AUD/USD: Slight increase in upward momentum – UOB Group

Mild upward pressure suggests AUD could edge higher, but it is unlikely to reach 0.6575. In the longer run, there has been a light increase in upward momentum; AUD could edge higher toward 0.6575, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

To maintain the momentum, AUD must hold above 0.6505

24-HOUR VIEW: "While we stated yesterday that 'the underlying tone in AUD has firmed,' we highlighted that 'this is likely to lead to a higher range of 0.6505/0.6545 instead of a sustained rise.' We did not expect AUD to rise to a high of 0.6558. Momentum is increasing, albeit not by much. Today, we expect AUD to edge higher. Given that momentum is mild for now, any advance is unlikely to reach 0.6575. Support is at 0.6535; a breach of 0.6520 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After holding a negative AUD view since the middle of last week (see annotations in the chart below), we pointed out yesterday (22 Jul, spot at 0.6525) that 'downward momentum is beginning to slow, and the likelihood of AUD dropping to 0.6455 is diminishing.' We added, 'unless AUD breaks and holds below 0.6490 in the next couple of days, a breach of the ‘strong resistance’ at 0.6560 will not be surprising.' AUD subsequently rose to a high of 0.6558. Although our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.6560 has not been breached yet, downward momentum has faded. There has been a slight increase in upward momentum, suggesting AUD could edge higher toward 0.6575. To maintain the momentum, AUD must hold above 0.6505."