AUD/USD gives up early gains ahead of US key economic releases
- AUD/USD gives back intraday gains and turns flat around 0.6740 as the Australian Dollar falls back.
- Australian CPI grew moderately by 3.4% YoY in November.
- The US Dollar trades flat ahead of key US economic releases.
The AUD/USD pair surrenders its early gains and flattens around 0.6740 during the European trading session on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, the Aussie pair posted a fresh yearly high near 0.6765, but gave up entire gains, following the release of the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that inflationary pressures grew at an annualized pace of 3.4%, slower than estimates of 3.7% and October’s reading of 3.8%. Month-on-month inflationary pressures remained flat again.
Slower-than-projected Australian CPI data is expected to turn out as a major drag on Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hawkish expectations. In the December policy meeting, the RBA signaled that the next move could be an interest rate hike if inflation proves to be persistent.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades flat ahead of key United States (US) economic releases. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, consolidates around 98.60.
A string of US economic data, such as ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data for December, and the JOLTS Job Opening data for November. Investors will pay close attention to US employment-linked data to get fresh cues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In 2025, the Fed delivered three interest rate cuts of 25 basis points (bps) to support weak labor demand.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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