EUR/CHF Price Forecast: consolidates near 0.9330, downside bias intact below key resistance
- EUR/CHF trades sideways near 0.9330 after a choppy week marked by the SNB monetary policy decision.
- Price action remains capped by a descending trendline and short-term moving averages.
- A sustained break below 0.9320 could open the way toward the 0.9300 psychological mark.
EUR/CHF is trading sideways on Friday, hovering near 0.9332 after a choppy week marked by the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) monetary policy announcement. The cross has been unable to find strong directional momentum, with sellers keeping a modest upper hand as the pair clings to support just above the 0.9320 region.
The SNB on Thursday kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, as widely expected, and signaled a neutral stance. Policymakers noted subdued domestic inflation and highlighted downside risks from slowing global growth and trade tensions, particularly from US tariffs on Swiss exports. While reiterating their readiness to step in to curb excessive Swiss Franc strength through FX interventions, they avoided hinting at near-term rate cuts.
The central bank projects inflation at just 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, underscoring weak underlying price pressure. At the same time, Switzerland’s growth outlook has softened, with Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowing to 0.5% as export-oriented sectors felt the pinch of weaker foreign demand.
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Technically, EUR/CHF remains capped by a descending trendline from the August highs, while repeatedly finding support near 0.9320, forming a triangle chart pattern on the daily chart. The pair is trading just below the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) around 0.9347 and 0.9358, respectively, reinforcing a near-term downside bias. A decisive break beneath 0.9320 could open the door toward the next support zone near 0.9300.
On the upside, the descending trendline, combined with the nearby moving averages, creates strong resistance near 0.9350, with the next hurdle at the weekly high around 0.9368. Momentum remains soft, with the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 44, suggesting limited buying interest.
SNB FAQs
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses.
The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.
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