Japanese Yen remains trapped in range against USD ahead of FOMC and BoJ policy meetings
- The Japanese Yen remains confined in an over one-month-old trading range.
- The BoJ rate hike ambiguity and a positive risk tone cap the safe-haven JPY.
- Fed rate cut bets keep the USD depressed and act as a headwind for USD/JPY.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the new week on a subdued note and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past month or so against its American counterpart amid mixed fundamental cues. The uncertainty over the likely timing and the pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to act as a headwind for the JPY. Moreover, the underlying bullish sentiment turns out to be another factor undermining the JPY's safe-haven status.
Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization path mark a significant divergence in comparison to rising bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The latter keeps the US Dollar (USD) close to its lowest level since July 24, touched last Friday, and benefits the lower-yielding JPY. Furthermore, traders seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of the FOMC and the BoJ policy meetings this week.
Japanese Yen bulls seem reluctant ahead of this week’s key central bank event risks
- Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's decision to resign earlier this month adds a layer of uncertainty over the future political landscape and government policies. This could give the Bank of Japan more reasons to delay its next interest rate hike, which keeps the Japanese Yen bulls on the back foot.
- Meanwhile, the recent US-Japan trade agreement has eliminated a key source of uncertainty. Moreover, an upward revision of Japan's Q2 GDP growth figures, along with a tight labor market and a rise in real wages for the first time in seven months, backs the case for another rate hike by the BoJ this year.
- The US called for further sanctions on Russia and possible tariffs on countries that they consider enabling its war in Ukraine in a call with the Group of Seven allies on Friday. This comes after Russian drones were downed by a NATO member, Poland, and Ukraine intensified drone strikes on Russian oil facilities.
- Meanwhile, an Iranian lawmaker, Mojtaba Zarei, has called on Qatar to expel US forces and host Iranian Revolutionary Guard hypersonic missiles to counter Israeli threats. This keeps geopolitical risks in play ahead of an Arab-Islamic leaders summit in Doha and offers some support to the safe-haven JPY.
- The US Dollar, on the other hand, hangs near its lowest level since July 24 amid the growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs this week. Moreover, the markets are pricing in a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed, which further lends support to the lower-yielding JPY.
- Traders, however, opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event risks – the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision and a two-day BoJ meeting starting on Thursday. The latest monetary policy updates will play a key role in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY technical setup favors bearish traders; sustained break and acceptance below 147.00 awaited
The range-bound price action constitutes the formation of a rectangle and points to indecision over the USD/JPY pair's near-term trajectory. Furthermore, neutral oscillators warrant some caution before placing directional bets. Meanwhile, the recent repeated failures near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) back the case for an imminent break to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the 147.00 mark will reaffirm the negative bias and expose the 146.30-146.20 horizontal support. This is closely followed by the 146.00 round figure, below which spot prices could accelerate the fall towards the 145.35 intermediate support en route to the 145.00 psychological mark.
On the flip side, any intraday move up is likely to confront an immediate hurdle near the 148.00 round figure, above which a fresh bout of short-covering could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) barrier, currently pegged near the 148.75 zone. Some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the 149.00 mark and the monthly swing high, around the 149.15 region, would negate the negative outlook and shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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