EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Positive view prevails above 172.50 amid risk-on sentiment
- EUR/JPY gathers strength to near 172.60 in Monday’s Asian session, adding 0.20% on the day.
- The positive view of the cross prevails above the key 100-day EMA, with a bullish RSI indicator.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at 173.00; the first support level to watch is 171.51.
The EUR/JPY cross attracts some buyers to around 172.60 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The uncertainty over the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and risk-on sentiment weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a tailwind for the cross. The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde's speech will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday.
According to the daily chart, the constructive outlook of EUR/JPY remains in place as the cross is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Further upside looks favorable as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline around 58.00. This displays a bullish momentum in the near term.
On the bright side, the first upside barrier emerges near 173.00, representing the high of August 13 and the psychological level. Sustained trading above this level could pick up more momentum and aim for 173.50, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Further north, the next resistance level is seen at 173.90, the high of July 28.
In the bearish case, the low of August 15 at 171.51 acts as an initial support level for EUR/JPY. The next contention level to watch is 170.35, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. A breach of this level could drag the cross toward the 170.00 round mark.
EUR/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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