British Pound gains ground as US Dollar struggles ahead of Fed decision
- GBP/USD gains as the US Dollar declines amid high uncertainty for the Fed's upcoming rate decision.
- Middle East geopolitical tensions and persistent US inflation risks could provide underlying support for the Greenback.
- The Bank of England is widely expected to hold rates at 3.75% after June inflation slowed to 2.6%.
GBP/USD edges higher after remaining flat in the previous day, trading around 1.3300 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggles ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming policy decision.
While the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, traders are currently pricing in an unusually high 30.5% chance of an immediate rate hike, signaling notable uncertainty ahead of the announcement. Looking further ahead, markets are factoring in a 76.6% probability of a rate increase in September, reinforcing expectations that borrowing costs will remain elevated for longer.
Despite its current weakness, the Greenback may find support from renewed hostilities in the Middle East. Re-ignited geopolitical tensions are keeping investor focus firmly on potential inflationary risks and the broader interest rate outlook in the United States.
Meanwhile, investors are also eyeing the Bank of England's (BoE) upcoming policy decision later this week, where interest rates are widely anticipated to hold steady at 3.75%. This outlook is supported by recent inflation data showing annual consumer price growth slowed to a 15-month low of 2.6% in June, falling below the Bank of England's previous projections.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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