United States Dollar Index remains near 101.00 amid Fed hawkish outlook
- US Dollar Index may rise as traders price in the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy outlook.
- The Greenback may weaken as easing safe-haven demand follows an initial peace agreement between the US and Iran.
- CENTCOM has lifted all maritime restrictions on traffic traveling to and from Iranian ports and coastal waters.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, remains flat after two days of gains and is trading around 100.83 during the Asian hours on Friday.
The Greenback may further advance as the traders price in the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. In his debut press conference, newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that "price stability" remains the Fed's ultimate guiding principle.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously on Wednesday to hold its benchmark overnight borrowing rate steady at a range of 3.5%–3.75%. However, the decision carried a hawkish tone, with nearly half of the officials signaling that at least one rate hike could be required later this year.
The US Dollar (USD) may face challenges amid easing safe-haven demand, which could be attributed to the United States (US)-Iran initial agreement. The deal has kicked off 60 days of negotiations on a final deal to end the war, per CNN.
Additionally, the US military earlier confirmed it had ended its blockade on Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz, as officials claim millions of barrels are once again flowing through the vital waterway. Positive developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal could boost riskier assets, such as the shared currency, in the near term.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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