Forex Today: Gold, Silver stretch blistering rally, USD recovery falters
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, January 29:
The broad-based overnight US Dollar (USD recovery has faltered heading into the European opening bells as concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence and looming economic and geopolitical risks overshadow a cautious hold decision by the US central bank.
The Fed on Wednesday kept the fed fund rates unchanged, as widely expected, but Chairman Jerome Powell struck a less dovish tone, noting that “the US economy expanded at a solid pace last year and is coming into 2026 on a firm footing.”
Powell added that job gains remain modest, unemployment shows signs of stabilizing, and inflation is still somewhat elevated.
Later in Wednesday’s North American session, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview that the US has always had a "strong dollar" policy and that they are "absolutely not" intervening in the Japanese currency markets.
In contrast, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the value of the dollar was "great", when asked if he thought it had declined too much.
The commentary from Powell and Bessent helped calm nerves and pause the USD downtrend, fuelling a brief recovery across the board.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.20% | -0.20% | 0.00% | -0.22% | -0.54% | -0.34% | -0.29% | |
| EUR | 0.20% | -0.00% | 0.20% | -0.02% | -0.34% | -0.14% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.21% | -0.02% | -0.35% | -0.15% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.20% | -0.21% | -0.22% | -0.53% | -0.36% | -0.28% | |
| CAD | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.22% | -0.31% | -0.12% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | 0.54% | 0.34% | 0.35% | 0.53% | 0.31% | 0.20% | 0.25% | |
| NZD | 0.34% | 0.14% | 0.15% | 0.36% | 0.12% | -0.20% | 0.06% | |
| CHF | 0.29% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.28% | 0.06% | -0.25% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Markets also digest a slew of geopolitical developments, remaining cautious ahead of the mid-tier US weekly Jobless Claims report.
Trump warned Iran on Wednesday that "time is running out" to negotiate a deal on its nuclear programme following the steady build-up of US military forces in the Gulf. In response, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the country's armed forces were ready "with their fingers on the trigger" to "immediately and powerfully respond" to any aggression by land or sea.
Meanwhile, the New York Times (NYT) reported earlier that Trump and Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer attempted to reach a possible agreement to negotiate new restrictions on federal immigration agents, in turn averting a shutdown.
Furthermore, upbeat earnings reports from American tech titans such as Meta, Microsoft and Tesla continue to keep the broader market sentiment somewhat buoyed, checking Greenback’s recovery.
Across the G10 currency space, AUD/USD holds the rebound under 0.7100 amid hawkish expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate outlook, following hot Australian inflation data.
USD/JPY regains 153.00 after having swung between gains and losses. The pair remains at a crossroads, divided between the underlying USD weakness and uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate hike prospects. Japanese political concerns keep the downside capped in the major.
EUR/USD consolidates gains below 1.2000 amid a lack of top-tier EU economic data, while digesting the recent European Central Bank (ECB) commentary as policymakers assess the ongoing Euro strength.
GBP/USD holds gains above 1.3800, helped by renewed USD selling and improving risk tone.
Gold clings to its corrective pullback after testing the $5,600 level for the first time on record. Silver refreshed all-time highs at $120.46 before retreating to near the $118 region.
WTI is at four-month highs of $64.29, capitalizing on the US crude inventory drop and impending Trump-Iran geopolitical risks.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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