ECB Accounts: Outlook broadly unchanged, waiting for more data
The account of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting held in Florence on 29-30 October shows that policymakers judged the economic and inflation outlook to be largely consistent with the September projection baseline, with uncertainty still elevated. Members agreed that keeping interest rates unchanged remained appropriate, as recent data did not materially alter the medium-term assessment and the distribution of risks around inflation remained broadly balanced, per Reuters.
Key takeaways
“The Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook was broadly unchanged.”
“The outlook remained uncertain.”
“Such uncertainty could also justify keeping interest rates unchanged.”
“It was also argued that the current level of policy rates should be seen as sufficiently robust for managing shocks.”
“There continued to be a high option value to waiting for more information.”
“It was also argued that the information content of the projections was lower for more distant horizons and monetary policy could have less influence at that horizon.”
“The view was expressed that the rate-cutting cycle had come to an end.”
“At the same time, the view was also expressed that it was important to remain entirely open-minded.”
“Most members viewed the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as two-sided.”
Market reaction
The publication provided slight initial support to EUR/USD, erasing earlier losses and bringing the pair back to flat on the day around 1.1590 at the time of press.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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