US Dollar Index rises to near 99.50 as Fed rate cut bets decline
- US Dollar Index gains ground amid declining odds of a Fed rate cut in December.
- CME FedWatch Tool indicates pricing in a 46% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
- Traders await the September Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is scheduled for release on Thursday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its gains for the second successive session and trading around 99.50 during the Asian hours on Monday.
The US yields on the 2- and 10-year Treasury notes have slipped to 3.60% and 4.14%, respectively, as investors temper expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in a 46% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, down from 67% probability that markets priced a week ago.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid said on Friday that monetary policy should “lean against demand growth,” adding that current Fed policy is “modestly restrictive,” which he believes is appropriate. Moreover, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said Thursday that rates are now closer to neutral than restrictive and the US economy remains resilient. Musalem stressed the need for caution, noting there is limited room to ease without risking overly accommodative policy.
Traders are preparing for a wave of delayed United States (US) economic data after the government’s reopening, looking for clearer signals on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. The highly anticipated September Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for release on November 20, with markets also awaiting a revised timeline for other key indicators. However, US National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett cautioned that some October data may “never materialize,” as several agencies were unable to gather information during the shutdown.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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