US Dollar Index rises to near 99.00 on fading Fed rate cut odds, Powell’s speech awaited
- US Dollar Index appreciates ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
- Fed rate cut odds ease following the US Purchasing Managers’ Index data and Initial Jobless Claims.
- Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated there is currently no case for cutting interest rates.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its gains for the second successive session and trading around 98.80 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders await Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming to gain clues on the September policy outlook.
The US Dollar appreciates amid easing odds of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September, driven by strong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and rising Initial Jobless Claims data from the United States (US). According to the CME FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 75% chance of a rate reduction in September, down from 82% on Wednesday.
The preliminary S&P Global US Composite PMI inched higher to 55.4 in August, from 55.1 prior. Meanwhile, the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 from 49.8 prior, surpassing the market consensus of 49.5. Services PMI eased to 55.4 from 55.7 previous reading, but was stronger than the 54.2 expected. Moreover, US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 235K for the previous week, an eight-week high and above the consensus estimate of 225K, suggesting some softening in labor market conditions.
On the sidelines of the three-day symposium, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said, during an interview with Yahoo Finance on Thursday, "I walk into every meeting with an open mind," "But with the data I have right now and with the information I have, if the meeting was tomorrow, I would not see a case for reducing interest rates," Hammack said according to Reuters.
However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that September’s Fed meeting remains open for action. Goolsbee further stated that the Federal Reserve has been receiving mixed signals on the economy. Boston Fed President Susan Collins signaled openness to a rate cut as soon as September, citing tariff headwinds and potential labor market softness, even as near-term inflation risks persist.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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