Forex Today: Eyes on US PMI data ahead of Fed's policy meeting
Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 5:
Investors adopt a cautious stance early Monday, while gearing up for this week's key macroeconomic events. The US economic calendar will feature the ISM Services PMI data for April on Monday before the Federal Reserve (Fed) conducts its two-day policy meeting from Tuesday.
US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.36% | 0.27% | 0.48% | -0.39% | -1.12% | -0.23% | -0.40% | |
| EUR | -0.36% | -0.15% | 0.11% | -0.76% | -1.56% | -0.58% | -0.78% | |
| GBP | -0.27% | 0.15% | 0.25% | -0.60% | -1.43% | -0.44% | -0.62% | |
| JPY | -0.48% | -0.11% | -0.25% | -0.84% | -1.56% | -2.09% | -0.62% | |
| CAD | 0.39% | 0.76% | 0.60% | 0.84% | -0.86% | 0.17% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | 1.12% | 1.56% | 1.43% | 1.56% | 0.86% | 1.00% | 0.81% | |
| NZD | 0.23% | 0.58% | 0.44% | 2.09% | -0.17% | -1.00% | -0.18% | |
| CHF | 0.40% | 0.78% | 0.62% | 0.62% | 0.00% | -0.81% | 0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) Index registered small losses on Friday but managed to end the week in positive territory. The data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 177,000 in April. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 130,000 but failed to boost the USD, as other details of the report showed that there were downward revisions to March and February NFP figures. The USD Index trades marginally lower on the day below 100.00 in the European morning.
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said that they will lower tariffs on China "at some point" and added that they could announce trade deals this week when asked about it. Trump also noted that they could start imposing 100% tariffs on imports of foreign-produced movies. Finally, he argued that interest rates should be lowered but reiterated that he will not remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman before his term ends in May 2026. In the early European session on Monday, US stock index futures lose about 0.5% on the day, reflecting a risk-averse market atmosphere.
Heightened geopolitical tensions also seem to be weighing on market mood on Monday. A missile landed near Israel Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday, and Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for the strike. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to respond to the attack and said that Iran would also face consequences.
Gold capitalizes on safe-haven flows to begin the week and trades above $3,260 in the early European session.
EUR/USD failed to gather bullish momentum on Friday and ended the day virtually unchanged. The pair holds its ground and trades in a narrow channel above 1.1300.
GBP/USD moves up and down in a tight channel slightly below 1.3300 after closing in negative territory last week.
USD/JPY posted losses on Friday but gained nearly 1% for the week. The pair continues to correct lower on Monday and was last seen losing more than 0.4% near 144.30.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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