Dow Jones rallies 300 points as soft US data fuels Fed rate cut bets

출처 Fxstreet
  • Dow is up 0.80% as markets cheer softer data; Treasury yields tumble in response.
  • JOLTS and Consumer Confidence data miss, strengthening the case for Fed easing in the coming months.
  • Trade policy ambiguity lingers after Bessent’s vague China comments and Amazon tariff confusion.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged over 300 points or 0.80% on Tuesday as softer-than-expected United States (US) economic data suggested the need for lower interest rates, as witnessed by the fall of US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the DJIA trades near 40,500 after bouncing off daily lows of 40,150.

DJIA climbs near 40,500 as weak labor and confidence figures drive yields lower and lift equities despite trade uncertainty

Market mood remains positive as the three most important US stock indices register gains, even though they retreated during US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's press conference at the White House. He commented on some progress with India and Japan, but failed to clarify regarding trade talks with China.

US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt revealed that Amazon’s shares were punished after reports emerged that Jeff Bezos's company was looking to list product tariff costs on its website. Later, Amazon’s spokesperson reported that the label tariff price was never under consideration for the main Amazon website.

Earlier, the US Department of Labor revealed that JOLTS data for March fell to 7.192 million, the lowest level since September, signaling softening labor demand. The reading missed expectations of 7.5 million, down from the previous month’s 7.48 million.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped sharply in April to 86.0, its lowest in nearly five years. It was down from 93.9 and missed the 87.5 forecast, highlighting growing pessimism among consumers.

After the data, the odds for the May meeting suggest the Fed will hold rates unchanged. Nevertheless, the June meeting is a coin flip, with the chances of lowering borrowing costs standing at 56.8%.

Ahead in the week, traders are eyeing the release of US GDP for Q1 2025, the Core PCE for April, followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll figures.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones cleared the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 39,800, extending its gains past the 40,000 mark. Although price action suggests buyers are gathering steam, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is failing to follow suit with price action. This hints that the latest advance could be short-lived and pave the way for a deeper pullback.

Meanwhile, if the Dow clears the 41,000 mark, expect a test of the 50-day SMA at 41,477, followed by the 200-day SMA at 42,272. On further strength, up next lies the 100-day SMA at 42,576.

On the flip side, a drop below 40,000 clears the path to test April 23’s low of 39,486, followed by the April 22 high of 39,271 to close the gap witnessed between April 22 and 23.

Dow Jones FAQs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.

Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.

Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.

There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

면책 조항: 정보 제공 목적으로만 사용됩니다. 과거 성과가 미래 결과를 보장하지 않습니다.
placeholder
상위 3대 가격 전망: 비트코인·이더리움·리플 – 위험선호 개선에 힘입어 BTC·ETH·XRP 안정세이번 주 광의의 암호화폐 시장은 소폭 강세로 출발했으며, SPX6900(SPX), 월드코인(WLD), Pump.fun(PUMP) 등이 반등을 주도하고 있다. PUMP의 기술적 구도는 혼조인 반면, SPX와 WLD에는 추가 상승 기대가 있다.
저자  FXStreet
어제 05: 56
이번 주 광의의 암호화폐 시장은 소폭 강세로 출발했으며, SPX6900(SPX), 월드코인(WLD), Pump.fun(PUMP) 등이 반등을 주도하고 있다. PUMP의 기술적 구도는 혼조인 반면, SPX와 WLD에는 추가 상승 기대가 있다.
placeholder
밈코인 가격 전망: 도지코인·시바이누·페페, 랠리 채비 완료월요일, 도지코인(DOGE)·시바이누(SHIB)·페페(PEPE) 등 밈코인이 상위권 성과를 기록했다. 파생상품 지표와 기술적 구도는 트레이더 관심이 늘며 신규 상승 추세 재개 가능성을 시사한다.
저자  FXStreet
어제 05: 57
월요일, 도지코인(DOGE)·시바이누(SHIB)·페페(PEPE) 등 밈코인이 상위권 성과를 기록했다. 파생상품 지표와 기술적 구도는 트레이더 관심이 늘며 신규 상승 추세 재개 가능성을 시사한다.
placeholder
솔라나 가격 전망: USDG 성장·나스닥 상장 호재로 채택 강화, SOL 안정세솔라나(SOL) 가격은 월요일 작성 시점 기준 $207 상단을 유지하고 있으며, 지난주 약 3%를 회복했다. 로빈후드가 후원하는 USDG 스테이블코인의 솔라나 상 공급이 지난 한 달간 약 160% 급증해 이더리움(ETH)을 추월하며, SOL 네트워크의 채택 확대를 부각했다.
저자  FXStreet
어제 08: 49
솔라나(SOL) 가격은 월요일 작성 시점 기준 $207 상단을 유지하고 있으며, 지난주 약 3%를 회복했다. 로빈후드가 후원하는 USDG 스테이블코인의 솔라나 상 공급이 지난 한 달간 약 160% 급증해 이더리움(ETH)을 추월하며, SOL 네트워크의 채택 확대를 부각했다.
placeholder
공급망 공격 여파… 암호화폐 소프트웨어 지갑 ‘위험 노출’하드웨어 지갑업체 레저(Ledger)의 최고기술책임자(CTO) 샤를 기예메(Charles Guillemet)는 오픈소스 개발자 ‘qix’의 노드 패키지 매니저(NPM) 계정이 침해된 이후, 암호화폐 소프트웨어 지갑을 겨냥한 대규모 공급망 공격이 진행 중이라고 월요일 경고했다.
저자  FXStreet
14 시간 전
하드웨어 지갑업체 레저(Ledger)의 최고기술책임자(CTO) 샤를 기예메(Charles Guillemet)는 오픈소스 개발자 ‘qix’의 노드 패키지 매니저(NPM) 계정이 침해된 이후, 암호화폐 소프트웨어 지갑을 겨냥한 대규모 공급망 공격이 진행 중이라고 월요일 경고했다.
placeholder
MYX 파이낸스, 시장 압도… 월드코인·버추얼스 프로토콜 두 자릿수 급등MYX 파이낸스(MYX), 월드코인(WLD), 버추얼스 프로토콜(VIRTUALS)이 지난 24시간 동안 두드러진 상승세로 광범위한 시장을 아웃퍼폼했다. MYX는 BNB 체인 연례 어워즈 수상 효과로 강세를 이어갔고, 월드코인은 에이트코(Eightco)의 2억5천만 달러 규모 트레저리 조성 계획(추가 2천만 달러는 비트마인(BitMine·BMNR) 전략 배치)으로 탄력을 받았다.
저자  FXStreet
12 시간 전
MYX 파이낸스(MYX), 월드코인(WLD), 버추얼스 프로토콜(VIRTUALS)이 지난 24시간 동안 두드러진 상승세로 광범위한 시장을 아웃퍼폼했다. MYX는 BNB 체인 연례 어워즈 수상 효과로 강세를 이어갔고, 월드코인은 에이트코(Eightco)의 2억5천만 달러 규모 트레저리 조성 계획(추가 2천만 달러는 비트마인(BitMine·BMNR) 전략 배치)으로 탄력을 받았다.
goTop
quote