Dow Jones rallies 300 points as soft US data fuels Fed rate cut bets

• Dow is up 0.80% as markets cheer softer data; Treasury yields tumble in response.
• JOLTS and Consumer Confidence data miss, strengthening the case for Fed easing in the coming months.
• Trade policy ambiguity lingers after Bessent’s vague China comments and Amazon tariff confusion.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged over 300 points or 0.80% on Tuesday as softer-than-expected United States (US) economic data suggested the need for lower interest rates, as witnessed by the fall of US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the DJIA trades near 40,500 after bouncing off daily lows of 40,150.

DJIA climbs near 40,500 as weak labor and confidence figures drive yields lower and lift equities despite trade uncertainty

Market mood remains positive as the three most important US stock indices register gains, even though they retreated during US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's press conference at the White House. He commented on some progress with India and Japan, but failed to clarify regarding trade talks with China.

US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt revealed that Amazon’s shares were punished after reports emerged that Jeff Bezos's company was looking to list product tariff costs on its website. Later, Amazon’s spokesperson reported that the label tariff price was never under consideration for the main Amazon website.

Earlier, the US Department of Labor revealed that JOLTS data for March fell to 7.192 million, the lowest level since September, signaling softening labor demand. The reading missed expectations of 7.5 million, down from the previous month’s 7.48 million.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped sharply in April to 86.0, its lowest in nearly five years. It was down from 93.9 and missed the 87.5 forecast, highlighting growing pessimism among consumers.

After the data, the odds for the May meeting suggest the Fed will hold rates unchanged. Nevertheless, the June meeting is a coin flip, with the chances of lowering borrowing costs standing at 56.8%.

Ahead in the week, traders are eyeing the release of US GDP for Q1 2025, the Core PCE for April, followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll figures.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones cleared the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 39,800, extending its gains past the 40,000 mark. Although price action suggests buyers are gathering steam, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is failing to follow suit with price action. This hints that the latest advance could be short-lived and pave the way for a deeper pullback.

Meanwhile, if the Dow clears the 41,000 mark, expect a test of the 50-day SMA at 41,477, followed by the 200-day SMA at 42,272. On further strength, up next lies the 100-day SMA at 42,576.

On the flip side, a drop below 40,000 clears the path to test April 23’s low of 39,486, followed by the April 22 high of 39,271 to close the gap witnessed between April 22 and 23.