EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bounces off 1.1300 neighborhood; shows resilience below 23.6% Fibo.

출처 Fxstreet
  • EUR/USD drifts lower for the second straight day amid a further USD recovery from a multi-year low
  • The technical setup favors bulls and warrants caution before positioning for a deeper corrective fall.
  • A sustained break and acceptance below 1.1300 could pave the way for some meaningful decline.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some follow-through selling for the second straight day on Wednesday and drops to a one-week low during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, rebound a few pips from the 1.1300 neighborhood and currently trade around the 1.1380 region, still down over 0.35% for the day.

The US Dollar (USD) builds on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of a three-year low touched on Monday and turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. That said, the weakening confidence in the US economy, along with the prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the risk-on impulse, caps gains for the safe-haven buck and helps limit losses for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair showed resilience below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally witnessed over the past month or so, from the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Furthermore, the bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), along with the fact that the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has eased from the overbought zone, favors bulls.

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the 1.1300 round figure before confirming that the EUR/USD pair has topped out near the 1.1575 area, or the highest level since November 2021 touched earlier this month. This will set the stage for a further corrective decline towards the 1.1250 area, or the 38.2% Fibo. level, en route to the 1.1200 mark and the 1.1160-1.1155 region, representing the 50% Fibo. level.

On the flip side, the 1.1400 round figure might now act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the Asian session high, around the 1.1425-1.1430 region. Some follow-through buying should lift the EUR/USD pair further beyond the 1.1500 psychological mark, towards challenging the multi-year peak, around the 1.1575 region touched earlier this month. Spot prices could eventually aim to reclaim the 1.1600 round-figure mark.

EUR/USD daily chart

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.


면책 조항: 정보 제공 목적으로만 사용됩니다. 과거 성과가 미래 결과를 보장하지 않습니다.
placeholder
상위 3개 급등주 VIRTUAL, EGLD, TRUMP: 8억 6,600만 달러 청산 속 알트코인 급등비트코인(BTC)이 주도한 암호화폐 급등으로 인해 트레이더들이 손실을 계산하는 가운데, 지난 24시간 동안 청산 규모가 금요일에 무려 8억 6,600만 달러에 달했다.
저자  FXStreet
10 시간 전
비트코인(BTC)이 주도한 암호화폐 급등으로 인해 트레이더들이 손실을 계산하는 가운데, 지난 24시간 동안 청산 규모가 금요일에 무려 8억 6,600만 달러에 달했다.
placeholder
유니스왑 가격 전망: 매수세 유입으로 UNI 강세 전환 신호 포착유니스왑(UNI) 가격은 전날 26% 급등한 후 금요일에 약 6.18달러 수준에서 안정세를 보였다. UNI의 총 예치 자산(TVL), 미결제 약정(OI), 토큰 거래량 등 온체인 지표는 강세 전망을 더욱 뒷받침하고 있다.
저자  FXStreet
10 시간 전
유니스왑(UNI) 가격은 전날 26% 급등한 후 금요일에 약 6.18달러 수준에서 안정세를 보였다. UNI의 총 예치 자산(TVL), 미결제 약정(OI), 토큰 거래량 등 온체인 지표는 강세 전망을 더욱 뒷받침하고 있다.
placeholder
은 가격 전망: XAG/USD, 32달러 중반대에서 완만한 긍정적 움직임 보이며 거래 중은(XAG/USD)은 금요일 아시아 세션에서 32.20달러 부근에서 저가 매수세를 유도하며, 지난 한 시간 동안 일일 최고치를 기록했다.
저자  FXStreet
10 시간 전
은(XAG/USD)은 금요일 아시아 세션에서 32.20달러 부근에서 저가 매수세를 유도하며, 지난 한 시간 동안 일일 최고치를 기록했다.
placeholder
리플 가격 전망: SEC와 5천만 달러 합의 후 XRP 3달러 돌파 임박리플(XRP) 가격은 금요일 작성 시점 기준으로 2.31달러 부근에서 상승폭을 유지하며 약간 하락한 상태다. 목요일 리플과 미국 증권거래위원회(SEC)가 공동으로 제출한 문서에 따르면, 양측은 사법 승인 대기 중인 합의에 도달한 것으로 나타났다.
저자  FXStreet
11 시간 전
리플(XRP) 가격은 금요일 작성 시점 기준으로 2.31달러 부근에서 상승폭을 유지하며 약간 하락한 상태다. 목요일 리플과 미국 증권거래위원회(SEC)가 공동으로 제출한 문서에 따르면, 양측은 사법 승인 대기 중인 합의에 도달한 것으로 나타났다.
placeholder
비트코인, 이더리움, 리플 가격 전망 Top 3: BTC, ETH, XRP 강세 주도하며 급등비트코인(BTC), 이더리움(ETH), 리플(XRP)이 이번 주 강세 모멘텀 확산에 힘입어 급등하고 있다.
저자  FXStreet
11 시간 전
비트코인(BTC), 이더리움(ETH), 리플(XRP)이 이번 주 강세 모멘텀 확산에 힘입어 급등하고 있다.
goTop
quote