Price action catalyzes the largest buying program since the summer of 2024 – TDS

CTAs were likely to buy Gold in the coming sessions in (nearly) every reasonable scenario for prices, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

USD's rally failes to weigh on precious metals

“We now estimate that price action overnight has been sufficiently strong to catalyze the largest buying program since the summer of 2024. As a result, CTA trend followers are set to add approximately +14% of their max size, providing a strong impulse for prices to break into new all-time highs.”

“Macro funds have replenished their war chest of dry-powder to deploy, whereas rates markets are only pricing 1.5 cuts for this year, the USD's relentless rally failed to weigh on precious metals amid signs of Mystery Buying, US10y yields have already considerably increased, and geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, suggesting the balance of risks now implies that macro funds will redeploy their capital into the yellow metal's warm embrace.”

“Further, Gold markets have seen significant relief for EFPs without damaging flat prices.”