USD: No change in FX language at the G7 meeting – ING

Earlier this week, we speculated over the low probability, high impact event of a change in FX language in this week's closing statement from the G7 meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank governors in Canada, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

DXY may trade within a 99.20-100.20 range today

"In the end, the statement said very little about FX apart from reaffirming commitment to its 2017 statement on FX - namely favouring free floating exchange rates and avoiding competitive devaluations, However, the statement did seem to convey much of the US concern over unfair trade practices which resulted in concern over 'unsustainable macro imbalances'. We read that phrase as the G7 looking at China's large trade surplus, although the global investor base could equally be looking at the US trade and budget deficits, too."

"Concerns remain over US Treasuries this summer, as evidenced by the US ten-year swap spread still trading wide at 55bp. We're also following the high-frequency data when it comes to foreign official holdings of US Treasuries. Fed custody holdings data suggest these fell $10bn in the week to Wednesday, marking a $30bn drop since the start of April. We're all really waiting for the April US TIC data, released mid-June, which will tell us which country sold what in April."

"Ahead of long weekends in the US and UK, realised FX volatility continues to drift lower. However, traded or expected volatility remains relatively high for EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Here, one-month trade levels remain above 8% and 11%, respectively, suggesting investors are not comfortable pricing pre-'Liberation Day' levels of volatility just yet. DXY may well trade slightly offered and well within a 99.20-100.20 range today."