Dow Jones Industrial Average treads water ahead of Fed rate call
- The Dow Jones is trading tightly on Thursday, cruising near record highs.
- Investors are battening down the hatches and waiting for the Fed’s latest rate call.
- Markets broadly anticipate another quarter-point rate trim from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is trading in a tight range on Thursday, testing close to record highs set earlier this week near 43,800. Markets surged this week after 2024’s US presidential election revealed a clear path to victory for former President Donald Trump, and markets are holding close to the top end in preparation for a further push higher on the back of a widely-anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in an all-but-confirmed 25 bps rate trim from the Fed late during Thursday’s US market session, with99.1% odds for a quarter-point rate cut to follow-up September’s outsized 50 bps opening rate slash. Investors hoping for a final quarter-point rate trim in December are battling it out with some expectations that the Fed may hold after November, with 67% odds of one last 25 bps rate cut on December 18.
University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index figures due on Friday will wrap up the week’s hectic release schedule. Median market forecasts expect the UoM’s sentiment survey to tick upwards to 71.0 in November after the previous month’s cautious step into 70.5.
Dow Jones news
The Dow Jones is shuffling its feet on Thursday, with the major equity board pulling into the middle. Intel (INTC) has recovered around 4%, climbing to $26 per share in a rebound after it was announced that the legacy chipmaker would be removed from the Dow Jones this week, ending a 25-year on the major stock index. On the low end, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) slipped nearly 4% lower, falling below $238 per share following a stellar post-election rally.
Dow Jones price forecast
The Dow Jones’ latest bullish push has sent the major equity index within reach of the 44,000 major handle. The DJIA is now up nearly 17% on the year, climbing 5.33% bottom-to-top in October alone.
With the Dow Jones testing deep into bull country, short pressure will be building to drag price action back down to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near the 42,000 key price level. Despite a clear way forward for bears, a lack of technical turnaround points with bids tapping record high territory makes it difficult to price in a short entry point; it turns out rising knives are just as difficult to catch as falling ones.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
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