Dow Jones futures steady as Fed rate-cut bets rise with Hassett news
- Dow Jones futures stay positive as December Fed rate-cut expectations strengthen.
- The White House has shortlisted Kevin Hassett for Fed chair, boosting expectations he’ll support Trump’s low-rate stance.
- Wall Street climbed on Wednesday as AI momentum returned, led by a 4% surge in Oracle.
Dow Jones futures are steady around 47,500 during Thursday’s European session, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also hold firm, edging up 0.03% and 0.08% to roughly 6,830 and 25,300, respectively. US markets will remain closed as traders observe the Thanksgiving holiday.
US index futures remain positive amid rising odds of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets in December. Fed rate expectations increased by reports that the White House has narrowed its search for the next Fed chair to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Investors see Hassett as supportive of US President Donald Trump’s preference for lower interest rates.
US data showed unexpectedly low Initial Jobless Claims and stronger-than-expected Durable Goods Orders, yet rate-cut expectations remained intact. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in a more than 85% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from the 39% probability that markets priced a week ago.
Wall Street advanced across the board in Wednesday’s regular session as AI-related stocks regained momentum. The Dow Jones climbed 0.8%, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%. Oracle led the rally, jumping 4% after Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick reaffirmed his bullish stance on the company’s cloud infrastructure business. Zelnick reiterated, in a note to clients, his buy rating and projected a potential upside of 90.3% for the stock.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
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