US Dollar Index steadies above 97.50 as Fed rate cut bets weigh on outlook
- The US Dollar Index may struggle due to the rising likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that officials are ready to lower interest rates soon.
- US inflation increased in July, a rise partly attributed to President Trump’s tariffs.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after registering losses in the previous four successive sessions and trading around 97.70 during the Asian hours on Monday. United States (US) markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
The Greenback faces challenges amid rising bets of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the September meeting. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Sunday that policymakers will be ready to cut the interest rates soon, adding that inflation stemming from tariffs will likely prove temporary, per Bloomberg.
US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index remained steady at 2.6% year-over-year in July, coming in line with the market expectation. The US core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.9% YoY in July, as expected, following June's increase of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, the core PCE Price Index rose 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.
CNN reported on Friday that the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit upheld a ruling that the sweeping tariffs the US President Donald Trump unilaterally imposed on most other countries were illegal. However, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a Fox News interview on Sunday that US President Donald Trump’s administration will likely continue negotiations with its trade partners despite the US court ruling.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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