Gold hits another new all-time high ahead of the Fed
- Gold advances to a fresh all-time high at $3,045 on Wednesday.
- Traders sent Gold higher on top of geopolitical news from Turkey and Ukraine.
- Gold’s rally starts to look a bit overdone and might see a pullback soon.
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) corrects slightly lower to near $3,030 at the time of writing on Wednesday after stretching higher and hitting a new all-time high at $3,045 earlier in the day. The positive move came after headlines emerged that authorities detained Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival, on charges including corruption and aiding a terrorist group.
This headline adds to the geopolitical drivers in Gold after Tuesday’s phone call between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which did not lead to a ceasefire deal or a major breakthrough. President Trump and President Putin agreed to an immediate pause in strikes against energy infrastructure in the Ukraine war. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Tuesday that talks about Ukraine without Ukraine will not bring about results.
Nevertheless, traders in the precious metal might face some headwinds later this Wednesday as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its policy rate decision and publish the Summary of Economic Projections update. After the meeting, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will comment in a press conference. With the Trump policy in the backdrop, markets will want to know how many, if any, rate cuts the Fed members have penciled in for 2025 and beyond.
Daily digest market movers: All eyes on the Fed
- Despite almost euphoric comments from US President Trump and Russian President Putin, several analysts see the recent ‘slim’ ceasefire deal as a small victory, not a step forward to peace. Putin and Trump agreed that there will be no attacks on energy objects for 30 days, Bloomberg reports.
- According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the odds that the Fed will keep interest rates at the current range of 4.25-4.50% on Wednesday are 99%. Meanwhile, rate cut odds for June’s meeting are 64.8%.
- Traders are paring back their bets on further monetary policy easing this year, which would weigh on the precious metal as higher yields are bearish for Gold. On the other hand, there are still concerns about a US slowdown as President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda weighs on consumer sentiment. Investors have been slashing holdings of US equities by the most on record, according to Bank of America's latest survey, underscoring a massive rotation underway in markets, Bloomberg reports.
Technical Analysis: It could get nasty
Gold ekes out another fresh all-time high in early Wednesday ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision. The tail risk in the event is if the Fed’s dot plot (a chart where every voting FOMC member pencils in where they see the monetary policy rate for 2025 and beyond) pencils in fewer rate cuts than markets anticipate. That would boost the fear of a recession or stagflation in the US, with rates remaining elevated to fight the surging inflation caused by a trade war amid tariffs, and would be negative for Gold.
Regarding technical levels, the new all-time high at $3,045 is the first level to beat. Next for this Wednesday is the R1 resistance at $3,048, just below the $3,050 round number. Once through there, the R2 resistance comes in at $3,063.
On the downside, the intraday Pivot Point at $3,024 is the first line of defense, followed by the S1 support near $3,010 ahead of the $3,000 level. In case the $3,000 mark snaps, look for $2,985 as big support.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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