Natural Gas: Prices extend 2026 rally – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Global Daily highlights European natural gas 1‑month TTF futures surging to 86.81 EUR/MWh, the highest level since 2023, after rising more than €60 from 2025 lows. Strategist Florence Schmit stresses growing European reliance on LNG ahead of the planned full phase‑out of Russian gas from 2027, with weaker October LNG exports from the Middle East and softer LNG arrivals into Europe.

TTF futures surge on LNG risks

"European natural gas 1-month TTF futures climbed to their highest level since 2023 at 86.81 EUR/MWh, having risen more than €60 from their 2025 lows."

"The rally has pushed prices above their early-September highs as geopolitical uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook for flows through the Strait of Hormuz."

"As Rabobank’s energy strategist, Florence Schmit, notes, this matters all the more as Europe’s reliance on LNG grows ahead of the planned full phase-out of Russian gas from the start of 2027, increasing competition with Asian buyers and the JKM market."

"Middle Eastern LNG exports are likely to be lower in October than in September, even allowing for unreported or “dark” transits, while LNG arrivals into Europe have already weakened this month."

"Or what happens when your access to energy is controlled by a war taking place thousands of miles away?"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)