WTI falls to near $90.00 as Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire fuels supply hopes
- WTI price slumps to near $90.15 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.
- The Houthis claimed responsibility for a weekend strike on Saudi Arabia.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $90.15 during the early European trading hours on Monday. WTI price tumbles on expectations of more Russian supplies after US President Donald Trump said Ukraine and Russia had agreed to halt attacks on each other's energy facilities following a US diesel-supply deal with Moscow.
On Friday, the US President stated that he struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin for Russia to supply diesel in stages. The source said Russia would supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, 500,000 tons in November, 1 million tons after that, and a further 3 million tons afterwards.
Crude oil prices are volatile after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis stepped up strikes on Saudi Arabia while two tankers were attacked over the weekend, per Reuters. Trump warned on Saturday that Iran "will not exist" if it does not cooperate with the US in negotiations. He added that he is considering joining Saudi Arabia in its retaliation against Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen after a deadly attack on Riyadh’s main airport.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Sunday that it reclassified an incident in the vicinity of Sohar anchorage in Oman as an attack after confirmation that the tanker was struck by a drone.
"We expect the Houthis to continue their attacks on Saudi Arabian energy assets, supporting gains in the oil price and the USD," analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note.
Traders brace for the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil stockpiles report later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could lift the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, which might undermine the WTI price.
Gasoline surge seen keeping US headline inflation elevated into 2027
According to TD Securities, US inflation pressures likely firmed again in September, with analysts expecting that "headline CPI strengthened again to 0.57% m/m, driven by a sharp rise in gasoline prices of 9.0%." The bank notes that "oil and gasoline prices increased again through most of September," and estimates that, "on average, the month should result in a 5.3% m/m increase in energy CPI." TD Securities adds that "food inflation also likely edged higher," and warns that "gasoline prices remain elevated and will likely keep headline CPI high in y/y terms until early 2027."
Technical Analysis: WTI retains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the broader tone constructive despite the latest pullback from the $100 area. Price also sits above the lower Bollinger Band but below the middle band, indicating consolidation within the upper half of the recent volatility envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 suggests momentum has cooled to a more neutral stance rather than signaling outright downside pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band around $91.90, with a stronger barrier at the upper band near $98.50, which aligns with the recent swing highs and could cap any recovery attempts. On the downside, immediate attention stays on the $90.00 area as a nearby pivot, ahead of more meaningful support at the lower Bollinger Band around $85.35 and the 100-day SMA at $84.10, where a break would weaken the prevailing bullish bias and open the door to a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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