Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD turns upside down amid soaring US Treasury Yields
- Silver price turns upside down and falls to near $57.25 amid surging US Treasury Yields.
- Traders seem confident that the Fed will deliver at least one interest rate hike by the October meeting.
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.
Silver price (XAG/USD) gives back its early gains and turns negative on Thursday. The white metal trades 0.7% lower at around $57.25 in the European trade after a positive start, which led to hitting an intraday high at $58.65.
Surging US Treasury Yields on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would need to hike interest rates in the near-term have diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
"Yields are a byproduct of the rate expectations, and if the market expects that inflation fears will translate into higher rates, yields will be higher," and this is pressuring gold, ANZ analyst Soni Kumari said. The remarks from the bank were especially for Gold; however, historically, Silver reacts in a similar fashion to Gold against bond yields.
At press time, 10-year US Treasury Yields trade 1.8% higher, close to their 18-month high of around 4.71%. A decent recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY) to near 101.00 after a weak Wednesday is also hurting the Silver price. Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an unfavorable risk-reward bet for investors.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.27% | 0.22% | 0.18% | 0.11% | 0.04% | -0.19% | 0.43% | |
| EUR | -0.27% | -0.07% | -0.07% | -0.16% | -0.25% | -0.48% | 0.16% | |
| GBP | -0.22% | 0.07% | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.18% | -0.40% | 0.25% | |
| JPY | -0.18% | 0.07% | 0.00% | -0.08% | -0.14% | -0.39% | 0.27% | |
| CAD | -0.11% | 0.16% | 0.10% | 0.08% | -0.07% | -0.31% | 0.34% | |
| AUD | -0.04% | 0.25% | 0.18% | 0.14% | 0.07% | -0.21% | 0.44% | |
| NZD | 0.19% | 0.48% | 0.40% | 0.39% | 0.31% | 0.21% | 0.68% | |
| CHF | -0.43% | -0.16% | -0.25% | -0.27% | -0.34% | -0.44% | -0.68% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an almost 75% chance that the Fed will deliver at least one interest rate hike by the October meeting.
The Silver price opened higher as the US Dollar fell sharply after the Fed’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. Fed’s monetary policy statement and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference signaled that policymakers are highly concerned about inflation remaining well-above the central bank’s 2% target for a longer period.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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