WTI slides to its lowest level since March as shipping through Hormuz gradually normalizes
- WTI erases nearly all of its US-Iran war-driven gains as supply fears fade.
- The gradual normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz weighs on crude prices.
- US crude stockpiles post another sharp draw, but the data provides little support to the market.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil extends its decline on Wednesday, falling more than 3% as stranded crude cargoes in the Strait of Hormuz gradually return to the market following an interim peace agreement between the United States (US) and Iran. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $70.20 per barrel, its lowest level since early March when the US-Iran war began.
WTI has erased almost all of its Middle East war-driven gains as fears of supply disruptions fade, while the US decision to temporarily lift oil sanctions on Iran is expected to bring additional crude supplies to global markets.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Wednesday, "Roughly 72 ships have exited the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours, amounting to 20 million barrels of oil." Wright also noted that a "return to normalcy in Hormuz will take a few weeks."
Meanwhile, the United States and Iran have yet to reach a final deal. The latest talks made some progress, but disagreements remain over Iran's nuclear program and the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran has stressed that the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to its pre-war status quo, with Iran and Oman expected to impose toll charges on vessels transiting the waterway.
US President Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that negotiations could collapse if Iran moves ahead with plans to charge tolls.
On the data front, a sharp drop in US crude inventories provided little support to Oil prices. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude stockpiles fell by 6.088 million barrels last week, compared with expectations for a 5.1 million-barrel decline. However, the drop was smaller than the previous week's 8.262 million-barrel draw.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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