Gold relentless buying remains unabated; fresh all-time peak and counting
- Gold continues to attract safe-haven flows amid renewed trade tensions, geopolitical risks.
- Bets for more rate cuts by the Fed offset the overnight USD strength and remain supportive.
- Even a positive risk tone does little to hinder the precious metal’s ongoing positive momentum.
Gold (XAU/USD) builds on the overnight breakout momentum beyond the $4,100 mark and prolongs its recent record-setting run through the Asian session on Tuesday. Against the backdrop of economic uncertainties on the back of the US government shutdown, renewed US-China trade tensions continue to drive safe-haven flows towards the bullion. Furthermore, geopolitical risk and firming expectations for more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) turn out to be other factors benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump's pivot on China tariffs remains supportive of the upbeat market mood. This, however, does little to dent the underlying strong bullish sentiment surrounding the Gold. Moreover, bullish traders seem unaffected by the recent US Dollar (USD) rise, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the commodity remains to the upside. That said, extremely overbought conditions warrant caution before positioning for any further gains ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance later this Tuesday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold remains well supported by flight to safety and dovish Fed bets
- With no resolution in sight, the stalemate over how to reopen the US government will extend into a third week as Democrats and Republicans continue to trade blame for the shutdown that began on October 1. The Senate returns on Tuesday and is expected to vote again on the funding plan, which has fallen short of the necessary 60-vote threshold seven times.
- US President Donald Trump reignited trade tensions on Friday and threatened to impose a sweeping 100% tariff on all Chinese goods from November 1 in retaliation for China’s enhanced restrictions on the export of rare earths. This marks another escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies and continues to benefit the safe-haven Gold.
- Trump softened his stance on Sunday and posted on Truth Social that the US does not wish to hurt China. Trump added that both countries wish to avoid economic pain, easing concerns about a trade war between the world's two largest economies and boosting investors' confidence. This, however, fails to hinder the commodity's strong follow-through positive move.
- On the geopolitical front, Ukrainian long-range drones hit at least five reservoirs in the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula. Meanwhile, Russian forces attacked Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, with guided bombs on Monday. The intensifying Russia-Ukraine war turns out to be another factor that contributes to the precious metal's record-setting run.
- Traders have now fully priced in the probability that the US Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points in October and see a 90% chance for another rate reduction in December. The dovish outlook provides an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal and backs the case for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend.
- The US Dollar is looking to build on the previous day's positive move and remains close to its highest level since early August, touched last week, though it does little to dent the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the XAU/USD. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity remains to the upside.
Gold bulls seem unstoppable despite extremely overbought conditions
From a technical perspective, the recent move up witnessed over the past three weeks or so has been along an upward-sloping trend-line support. Moreover, the overnight breakout through the $4,055-4,060 horizontal resistance and a subsequent strength beyond the $4,100 mark reaffirm the near-term positive outlook for the XAU/USD pair. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing extremely overbought conditions and warrants caution before positioning for a further appreciating move.
Meanwhile, any meaningful corrective pullback might now be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain cushioned near the $4,060-4,055 region. A convincing break below the latter, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $4,000 psychological mark en route to the ascending trend-line support, currently pegged near the $3,985 zone. Some follow-through selling could be seen as the first sign of a possible bullish exhaustion and pave the way for deeper losses.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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