EUR/USD climbs above 1.1300 ahead of German Q1 GDP data
- EUR/USD advances as the Greenback offers its recent gains as Treasury yields decline.
- US 30-year bond yield retreated after hitting 5.15% on Thursday, the highest in 19 months.
- Traders focus on news that Trump put pressure on European Union to reduce tariffs or face additional duties.
EUR/USD recovers its recent losses posted in the previous session, trading around 1.1310 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) struggles due to a drop in US Treasury yields, which continue to depreciate after the 30-year US bond yield pulled back from 5.15%, the highest in 19 months.
US President Donald Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed the US House of Representatives and is on its way to the Senate floor, which has raised concerns regarding the increase in the fiscal deficit in the United States (US).
However, the EUR/USD pair registered around 0.50% losses on Thursday as the Greenback advanced as US S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted a 52.1 reading for May, rising from April’s 50.6 reading. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.2 prior, while the Services PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.8.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted on Thursday that markets are monitoring fiscal policy. Waller further stated that if tariffs are close to 10%, the economy would be in good shape for H2, and the Fed could be in a position to cut later in the year.
The Financial Times reported that President Trump pushes the European Union (EU) to cut tariffs or face extra duties. US Trade Representative Greer is set to tell EU counterpart Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, that the recent "explanatory note" falls short of US expectations.
On Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić noted that the “Eurozone growth is positive but low.” Vujčić expects that inflation may get close to the 2% target at the end of the year and achieve the target in early 2026. Meanwhile, Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank and member of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Governing Council (GC), argued that the bank’s current interest rate level is not considered restrictive.
Eurozone’s HCOB Flash PMI highlighted the ongoing economic slowdown in May. The Services PMI fell from 50.1 to 48.9, below estimates of 50.3, and the Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4, up from 49.0 in April, exceeding forecasts. Meanwhile, the German HCOB Services PMI dipped from 49.0 to 47.2, below forecasts for a 49.5 increase. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI rose by 48.8, up from April’s 48.4, below forecasts for a 48.9 increase. Traders would likely observe the German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due on Friday.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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