EUR: Cheaper levels – ING

At some points over the last six weeks, it felt like there was no point trying to pick a top in EUR/USD as overwhelming bearish sentiment on the dollar dominated. But that EUR/USD move to 1.15/16 did mark an extreme 5/6% over-valuation on our short-term financial fair value models and served as a reminder that there are some limits after all, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Current corrective dip can find good buyers in the 1.1030/50

"For now, it looks as though EUR/USD has completed a first leg in a sequence of what could be a multi-year bull trend. We imagine this current corrective dip will find good buyers in the 1.1030/50 area, with outside risk to 1.0850. But this week's decline makes us feel more comfortable about our year-end target of 1.13, which otherwise had looked too conservative. We have a slight EUR/USD bias to 1.1030/50 today."

"Some potential challenges to the dollar later this week could be Thursday's US retail sales data for April and Friday's TIC data for March – the latter showing whether foreign investors (including central banks) have been leaving US asset markets. EUR/USD will also be interested in whether all three leaders of the US, Russia and Ukraine make it to Istanbul this Thursday."