NZD/USD holds gains near 0.5850 following Business NZ PMI, mixed China data
- NZD/USD remains stable following the release of mixed economic data from China.
- Business NZ PMI fell to 45.8 in October, down from a revised 47.0 in September.
- The US Dollar remains steady near its fresh 2024 highs, despite signs of slowing in "Trump trades."
The NZD/USD halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 0.5850 during the Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) might have received downward pressure as the Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) fell to 45.8 in October, down from a revised 47.0 in September, reaching its lowest level since July 2024.
The NZD/USD pair holds gains after mixed key data was released from its close trading partner China. Retail Sales rose 4.8% year-over-year in October, surpassing the expected 3.8% and the 3.2% increase seen in September. Meanwhile, the country’s Industrial Production grew by 5.3% YoY, slightly below the forecasted 5.6% but higher than the 5.4% growth recorded in the previous period.
During its press conference on Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shared its economic outlook, noting an improvement in China's consumer expectations in October. The bureau plans to intensify policy adjustments and boost domestic demand, highlighting that recent policies have had a positive impact on the economy.
The US Dollar (USD) remains stable near its fresh 2024 highs, despite indications of slowing in "Trump trades." The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's performance against six major currencies, hovers around 107.00, near its highest level since November 2023.
Market attention is now shifting to the release of US October Retail Sales data on Friday, along with remarks from Federal Reserve officials. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented that the recent performance of the US economy has been "remarkably good," providing the Fed with the flexibility to gradually lower interest rates.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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