GBP/USD stabilize above 1.29 on BoE expectations – DBS

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to lower its bank rate by 25 bps to 4.75% on November 7, DBS’ Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee notes.

BOE Governor to address monetary policy

“CPI inflation fell to 1.7% YoY in September, below the 2% target for the first time since Covid. However, core inflation remained high at 3.2% in September. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey should address monetary policy in light of the controversial Budget announced on October 31.”

“While the IMF backed Chancellor Rachel Reeve’s economic plan to boost public investment to drive growth, Moody’s warned that frequent changes to the fiscal rules could erode credibility. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reckoned the additional spending could provide a short-term lift to growth before crowding out business activity and investment and lifting inflation.”

“Following its knee-jerk sell-off to 1.2844 on the announcement, GBP/USD has stabilized above 1.29 on expectations of cautious BOE rate adjustments.”