New Zealand Dollar weakens as global risk aversion overshadows hawkish RBNZ outlook
- NZD/USD could find support as hot inflation figures reinforce market expectations for a September RBNZ rate hike.
- Hot inflation validated RBNZ warnings, boosting expectations for further policy tightening after July's first rate hike in three years.
- Rising US-Iran geopolitical tensions drive safe-haven demand amid growing risk aversion.
NZD/USD extends its losing streak for the fifth successive day, trading around 0.5810 during the European hours on Wednesday. However, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could find support as hot inflation figures have reinforced market expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver another interest rate hike in September.
New Zealand’s annual inflation accelerated to 4.1% in Q2, up from 3.1% in Q1, topping both market expectations of 4.0% and the central bank's forecast of 3.9%. Reaching its highest level since Q4 2023, inflation remains well above the RBNZ's 1–3% target range.
The hot reading reinforces recent warnings from RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway regarding sticky inflation, boosting expectations for further policy tightening following the central bank's July 8 rate hike, its first in three years.
The NZD/USD pair remains subdued as the US Dollar (USD) may regain its ground amid growing risk aversion tied to escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.
CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are currently pricing in over 69% odds of at least a 25 basis-point rate hike at the upcoming September meeting. However, the Fed is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. Despite this anticipated pause, expectations for tighter policy remain elevated beyond July.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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