Japanese Yen consolidates as USD bulls look to US CPI and Fed's Warsh
- USD/JPY stalls the previous day’s strong move up, though the downside seems cushioned.
- Economic risks from the Mideast crisis and the wide US-Japan rate gap undermine the JPY.
- Safe-haven buying and Fed hike bets favor USD bulls ahead of the US CPI and Fed’s Warsh.
The USD/JPY pair is seen consolidating the previous day's strong move up and trading just below mid-162.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices, however, remain close to a four-decade top touched earlier this month, keeping traders on edge amid expectations of a possible intervention by Japanese authorities.
In the meantime, Japan's Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, said that a change to the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) asset allocation could be examined if the investment environment shifts sharply. This, in turn, lends support to the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, pauses after a two-day rally as bulls opt to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony. This further contributes to capping the upside for the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, along with hawkish Fed expectations, might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, US President Donald Trump on Monday reimposed a blockade of Iranian ports, and the US military launched a third straight night of strikes against Iran. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted US facilities in the region, while two UAE tankers were hit by Iranian cruise missiles in the Strait of Hormuz.
This adds to economic concerns amid Japan’s heavy reliance on imported oil from the Middle East and continues to undermine the JPY. Furthermore, a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices reignites inflation fears and bolsters bets that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. This could further widen the US-Japan rate gap, despite the recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike to 1%, or the highest since 1995, and keep the so-called Yen carry trade active. The fundamental backdrop keeps the USD/JPY pair close to a four-decade high and favors bulls.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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