Canadian Dollar gains on higher oil prices
- USD/CAD slips as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar gains on higher oil prices.
- Crude oil prices gain as Trump reinstated an Iranian blockade and imposed a 20% transit fee on other vessels securing the strait.
- The US Dollar could receive support as intensifying Middle East tensions could drive global investors into safe-haven assets.
USD/CAD continues its losing streak after remaining flat in the previous day, trading around 1.4150 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from higher oil prices. It is important to note that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
Crude oil prices rise due to mounting supply anxieties following a sharp escalation of geopolitical hostilities in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump has reinstated a naval blockade targeting Iranian vessels and customers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously announcing that all other commercial cargo passing through the strategic waterway will be subject to a 20% reimbursement fee.
President Trump asserted that the US must be financially compensated for its military efforts to secure the volatile chokepoint, pointing directly to regional nations that benefit from US protection, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
The USD/CAD pair’s downside remains limited as a wave of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fuels safe-haven demand, which could drive investors back into the US Dollar (USD). At the same time, climbing crude oil prices are complicating the outlook; while higher oil typically boosts the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), it is also triggering renewed fears that energy-driven inflation will force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten policy further. Market expectations have shifted rapidly in response, with the CME FedWatch Tool now showing a 51% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, compared to just a 23% chance that rates will stay on hold.
Market participants are temporarily pausing ahead of two massive macroeconomic catalysts scheduled for Tuesday. First up is the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, where analysts anticipate a divergence between a 0.1% month-on-month decline in headline inflation and a sticky 0.3% increase in the core reading. Shortly after, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver highly anticipated congressional testimony, a session that traders will dissect word-by-word for hints on whether the central bank will validate the market's growing hawkishness.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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