Australian Dollar steadies above 0.6900 as markets price a negotiated end to Iran’s war
- AUD/USD remains steady above 0.6900 this week, unfazed by the rising geopolitical tensions.
- Markets remain hopeful that the US and Iran will resume peace talks.
- The Fed minutes highlighted a committee divided on the rate path and sent the US Dollar lower across the board on Wednesday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) keeps trading sideways against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, showing a surprising resilience to the escalating tensions in Iran. The pair has been steady above 0.6900 in the face of the rising tensions in Iran, with bearish momentum fading, as investors remain hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table.
US and Iran exchanged attacks for the second consecutive day on Thursday, but failed to do any significant harm to the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar. Investors keep seeing these skirmishes as manoeuvres to gain leverage in the peace negotiations, with the idea of an all-out war discarded for now.
Fed minutes fail to support the USD
Beyond that, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first monetary policy meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh’s leadership showed a government board split on the near-term monetary policy path. The overall tone of the minutes was tilted to the hawkish side, with the policymakers showing a distinct commitment to bring inflation to target, but the US Dollar dropped across the board following the release.
Data released on Thursday, however, was far from supportive for the Aussie. China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) contracted 0.3% in June, beyond the 0.2% drop forecasted by market analysts and also below the 0.1% contraction seen in May. Yearly inflation slowed down to 1% from 1.2% in May, also below the 1.1% expected.
These figures confirm that domestic demand in the world's second-largest economy remains sluggish, which casts shadows on the Australian economic outlook. China is Australia's main trading partner, and its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is strongly dependent on export activity.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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