South African Rand: Downtrend at risk of resuming – Societe Generale

Societe Generale technical analysts observe that the USD/ZAR downtrend has stalled after an interim low in January, with the pair capped by its 200-day moving average. A recent pivot high defines a key resistance zone for a larger bounce, while failure to hold the April low could see the broader downtrend reassert itself in coming weeks.

Key levels define Rand outlook

"USD/ZAR downtrend stalled after carving out an interim low near 15.63 in January."

"The pair has so far struggled to reclaim the 200-DMA, which has capped recoveries since last year."

"The recent pivot high around 16.80/16.92 marks a short-term resistance zone."

"Overcoming this hurdle is crucial to confirm a larger bounce."

"Failure to defend the April low of 16.12 may result in resumption of the downtrend."

"The SARB is forecast to raise rates by 25bp today to 7.0% after inflation accelerated to 4.0% in April."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)