EUR/USD clings to gains with all eyes on US Nonfarm Payrolls data
- EUR/USD remains steady around 1.1900, more than 1% above last week's lows.
- Soft US consumption figures provided additional support to the pair on Tuesday.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to show a 70K increase in January later in the day.
The Euro (EUR) nudges up against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday but remains trapped in the previous days' range, trading near 1.1910 at the time of writing, more than 1% above last week's lows. Downbeat US data increased concerns about the economic outlook ahead of the release of January's delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, and increased negative pressure on an already weak USD.
US Retail Sales remained flat in December, against expectations, suggesting that consumption, which accounts for nearly 70% of the GDP, will have a weaker contribution to US growth in the last quarter of 2025.
Beyond that, labour costs slowed down in the fourth quarter, pointing to a steadier labour market and providing further reasons for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease its monetary policy.
The economic calendar is thin during Wednesday's European session, and all eyes will be on the US Nonfarm Payrolls Report due later in the day. Later on, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, the Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will take the stage. European Central Bank (ECB) committee member Isabel Schnabel is also expected to meet the press during the US trading session.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.17% | -0.19% | -0.75% | -0.20% | -0.46% | -0.19% | -0.30% | |
| EUR | 0.17% | -0.02% | -0.58% | -0.01% | -0.29% | -0.02% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | 0.02% | -0.57% | -0.01% | -0.28% | -0.03% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.75% | 0.58% | 0.57% | 0.56% | 0.29% | 0.56% | 0.46% | |
| CAD | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.56% | -0.27% | 0.00% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.46% | 0.29% | 0.28% | -0.29% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.03% | -0.56% | -0.00% | -0.27% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.30% | 0.13% | 0.11% | -0.46% | 0.10% | -0.16% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest market Movers: Soft data keeps the US Dollar on the defensive
- US consumption data added pressure to an already soft US Dollar on Tuesday. Retail Sales remained flat in December, against expectations of a 0.4% growth and following a 0.6% increase in November. Beyond that, October's data was revised to a 0.2% contraction from the 0.1% drop previously reported.
- Also on Tuesday, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the US Employment Cost Index slowed down to 0.7% in Q4 from 0.8% in the previous quarter, with the annual rate growing at its slowest pace since 2021.
- Recent US data has endorsed the dovish party of the Federal Reserve's committee, prompting investors to ramp up their bets for monetary easing in 2026. Futures markets are pricing nearly 75% chances of a rate cut in June and between two and three cuts before December, according to the CME Fedwatch tool, and compared with the quarter-point monetary easing projected by the Fed.
- Later on Wednesday, US NFP data is expected to show a 70K increase in payrolls in January, up from the 50K net jobs created in December. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.4%, and wages are expected to have slowed down to a 3.6% yearly growth, from 3.8% in December.
- On Monday, the White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett affirmed that job growth will remain slow in the coming months due to US President Donald Trump's migration policies and a sharp increase in productivity, which has dampened expectations for a bright NFP report.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD recovery stalls below 1.1935
The 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD trading sideways between the 38.2% and the 50% Fibonacci retracements of the late January selloff. The immediate bias remains positive, although technical indicators highlight a softer momentum.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, but the MACD line seems ready to cross below the signal line in what would be a bearish move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), on the other hand, stands above 60, showing a moderate bullish strength.
The mentioned 50% Fibonacci level and Monday's high, in the area of 1.1925, are closing the path towards the January 30 high near 1.1975. On the downside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement aligns with session lows around 1.1885. A confirmation below that level would add pressure towards Monday's low near 1.1815.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
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